Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 62.87%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Alaves had a probability of 15.05%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.47%) and 2-1 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.4%), while for an Alaves win it was 0-1 (5.66%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Villarreal would win this match.
Result | ||
Villarreal | Draw | Alaves |
62.87% | 22.08% | 15.05% |
Both teams to score 45.09% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
48.36% | 51.64% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
26.58% | 73.42% |
Villarreal Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.13% | 15.87% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
54.91% | 45.09% |
Alaves Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
53.59% | 46.41% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
17.97% | 82.03% |
Score Analysis |
Villarreal | Draw | Alaves |
1-0 @ 13.55% 2-0 @ 12.47% 2-1 @ 9.58% 3-0 @ 7.66% 3-1 @ 5.88% 4-0 @ 3.52% 4-1 @ 2.7% 3-2 @ 2.26% 5-0 @ 1.3% 4-2 @ 1.04% 5-1 @ 1% Other @ 1.91% Total : 62.85% | 1-1 @ 10.4% 0-0 @ 7.37% 2-2 @ 3.68% Other @ 0.63% Total : 22.07% | 0-1 @ 5.66% 1-2 @ 4% 0-2 @ 2.17% 1-3 @ 1.02% 2-3 @ 0.94% Other @ 1.26% Total : 15.05% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Real Madrid | 37 | 29 | 7 | 1 | 87 | 26 | 61 | 94 |
2 | Barcelona | 37 | 25 | 7 | 5 | 77 | 43 | 34 | 82 |
3 | GironaGirona | 37 | 24 | 6 | 7 | 78 | 46 | 32 | 78 |
4 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 37 | 23 | 4 | 10 | 68 | 43 | 25 | 73 |
5 | Athletic Bilbao | 37 | 18 | 11 | 8 | 60 | 37 | 23 | 65 |
6 | Real Sociedad | 37 | 16 | 12 | 9 | 51 | 37 | 14 | 60 |
7 | Real BetisBetis | 37 | 14 | 14 | 9 | 48 | 45 | 3 | 56 |
8 | Villarreal | 37 | 14 | 10 | 13 | 64 | 64 | 0 | 52 |
9 | Valencia | 37 | 13 | 9 | 15 | 38 | 43 | -5 | 48 |
10 | AlavesAlaves | 37 | 12 | 9 | 16 | 35 | 45 | -10 | 45 |
11 | Osasuna | 37 | 12 | 8 | 17 | 44 | 55 | -11 | 44 |
12 | Getafe | 37 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 43 |
13 | Sevilla | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 47 | 52 | -5 | 41 |
14 | Celta Vigo | 37 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 44 | 55 | -11 | 40 |
15 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 37 | 10 | 9 | 18 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 39 |
16 | Rayo Vallecano | 37 | 8 | 14 | 15 | 29 | 47 | -18 | 38 |
17 | Mallorca | 37 | 7 | 16 | 14 | 31 | 43 | -12 | 37 |
R | CadizCadiz | 37 | 6 | 15 | 16 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 33 |
R | Granada | 37 | 4 | 9 | 24 | 38 | 72 | -34 | 21 |
R | Almeria | 37 | 2 | 12 | 23 | 37 | 74 | -37 | 18 |
> La Liga Full Table |