Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 71.03%. A draw had a probability of 16.8% and a win for Almeria had a probability of 12.14%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.5%) and 1-0 (8.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.77%), while for an Almeria win it was 1-2 (3.55%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
Result | ||
Atletico Madrid | Draw | Almeria |
71.03% ( 0.18) | 16.83% ( -0.06) | 12.14% ( -0.12) |
Both teams to score 54.65% ( -0.19) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
65.18% ( -0.04) | 34.82% ( 0.04) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
43.21% ( -0.05) | 56.79% ( 0.04) |
Atletico Madrid Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
91.32% ( 0.03) | 8.68% ( -0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
70.1% ( 0.08) | 29.9% ( -0.08) |
Almeria Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
59.84% ( -0.23) | 40.15% ( 0.22) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
23.21% ( -0.21) | 76.79% ( 0.2) |
Score Analysis |
Atletico Madrid | Draw | Almeria |
2-0 @ 10.41% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 9.5% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 8.52% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 8.48% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 7.74% ( 0) 4-0 @ 5.18% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 4.73% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 3.53% ( -0.02) 5-0 @ 2.53% ( 0.02) 5-1 @ 2.31% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 2.16% ( -0.01) 5-2 @ 1.05% ( -0) 6-0 @ 1.03% ( 0.01) 6-1 @ 0.94% ( 0) Other @ 2.91% Total : 71.03% | 1-1 @ 7.77% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 4.33% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 3.49% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.07% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.16% Total : 16.83% | 1-2 @ 3.55% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 3.18% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 1.45% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.32% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 1.08% ( -0.02) Other @ 1.56% Total : 12.14% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Real Madrid | 33 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 71 | 22 | 49 | 84 |
2 | Barcelona | 33 | 22 | 7 | 4 | 68 | 39 | 29 | 73 |
3 | GironaGirona | 33 | 22 | 5 | 6 | 69 | 40 | 29 | 71 |
4 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 33 | 20 | 4 | 9 | 62 | 39 | 23 | 64 |
5 | Athletic Bilbao | 33 | 16 | 10 | 7 | 53 | 33 | 20 | 58 |
6 | Real Sociedad | 33 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 46 | 35 | 11 | 51 |
7 | Real BetisBetis | 33 | 12 | 13 | 8 | 41 | 39 | 2 | 49 |
8 | Valencia | 33 | 13 | 8 | 12 | 37 | 38 | -1 | 47 |
9 | Villarreal | 33 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 54 | 55 | -1 | 45 |
10 | Getafe | 33 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 41 | 45 | -4 | 43 |
11 | Osasuna | 33 | 11 | 6 | 16 | 37 | 49 | -12 | 39 |
12 | Sevilla | 33 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 42 | 46 | -4 | 38 |
13 | AlavesAlaves | 33 | 10 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 38 | -7 | 38 |
14 | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 30 | 41 | -11 | 37 |
15 | Rayo Vallecano | 33 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 27 | 42 | -15 | 34 |
16 | Mallorca | 33 | 6 | 14 | 13 | 27 | 39 | -12 | 32 |
17 | Celta Vigo | 33 | 7 | 10 | 16 | 37 | 50 | -13 | 31 |
18 | CadizCadiz | 33 | 4 | 14 | 15 | 23 | 46 | -23 | 26 |
19 | Granada | 33 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 36 | 61 | -25 | 21 |
R | Almeria | 33 | 1 | 11 | 21 | 32 | 67 | -35 | 14 |
> La Liga Full Table |