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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitesse win with a probability of 54.67%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for NEC had a probability of 22.32%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitesse win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.84%) and 2-0 (9.16%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.85%), while for a NEC win it was 0-1 (5.99%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Vitesse would win this match.
Result | ||
Vitesse | Draw | NEC |
54.67% | 23% | 22.32% |
Both teams to score 55.11% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.11% | 44.89% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
32.76% | 67.24% |
Vitesse Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.69% | 16.31% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
54.11% | 45.89% |
NEC Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.85% | 34.15% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.15% | 70.84% |
Score Analysis |
Vitesse | Draw | NEC |
1-0 @ 10.1% 2-1 @ 9.84% 2-0 @ 9.16% 3-1 @ 5.95% 3-0 @ 5.54% 3-2 @ 3.2% 4-1 @ 2.7% 4-0 @ 2.51% 4-2 @ 1.45% 5-1 @ 0.98% 5-0 @ 0.91% Other @ 2.35% Total : 54.67% | 1-1 @ 10.85% 0-0 @ 5.57% 2-2 @ 5.29% 3-3 @ 1.14% Other @ 0.15% Total : 23% | 0-1 @ 5.99% 1-2 @ 5.83% 0-2 @ 3.22% 1-3 @ 2.09% 2-3 @ 1.89% 0-3 @ 1.15% Other @ 2.16% Total : 22.32% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 33 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 108 | 20 | 88 | 88 |
2 | Feyenoord | 33 | 25 | 6 | 2 | 88 | 26 | 62 | 81 |
3 | FC Twente | 33 | 20 | 6 | 7 | 67 | 35 | 32 | 66 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 33 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 67 | 36 | 31 | 64 |
5 | Ajax | 33 | 15 | 10 | 8 | 72 | 59 | 13 | 55 |
6 | NECNijmegen | 33 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 64 | 50 | 14 | 50 |
7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 33 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 46 | 44 | 2 | 49 |
8 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 49 | 47 | 2 | 46 |
9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 33 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 45 | 45 | 0 | 43 |
10 | Heerenveen | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 52 | 68 | -16 | 37 |
11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 37 | 56 | -19 | 37 |
12 | PEC Zwolle | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 44 | 65 | -21 | 36 |
13 | Almere CityAlmere City | 33 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 32 | 55 | -23 | 34 |
14 | Heracles | 33 | 9 | 5 | 19 | 41 | 74 | -33 | 32 |
15 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 37 | 53 | -16 | 29 |
16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 33 | 6 | 11 | 16 | 50 | 69 | -19 | 29 |
R | FC VolendamVolendam | 33 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 33 | 86 | -53 | 19 |
R | Vitesse | 33 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 28 | 72 | -44 | 5 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |