Twente had a difficult Sunday afternoon at Waalwijk and looked unrecognisable from the side who started their campaign with four victories, but supporters will be expecting a return to winning ways on Wednesday.
Vitesse are enduring an early-season rut under the questionable management of former Derby County boss Cocu, and we believe the Arnhem-based club will come away from De Grolsch Veste without any tangible reward for their efforts.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Twente win with a probability of 54.42%. A win for Vitesse had a probability of 24.22% and a draw had a probability of 21.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Twente win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.34%) and 1-0 (7.19%). The likeliest Vitesse win was 1-2 (6.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.39%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Twente would win this match.
0.54) 
-0.61) 
