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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Twente win with a probability of 60.28%. A draw had a probability of 20.6% and a win for Sparta Rotterdam had a probability of 19.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Twente win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.07%) and 1-0 (8.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.48%), while for a Sparta Rotterdam win it was 1-2 (5.17%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Twente would win this match.
Result | ||
FC Twente | Draw | Sparta Rotterdam |
60.28% ( 0.26) | 20.62% ( 0.07) | 19.1% ( -0.33) |
Both teams to score 58.19% ( -0.85) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
61.59% ( -0.84) | 38.4% ( 0.83) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
39.3% ( -0.89) | 60.69% ( 0.89) |
FC Twente Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
87.61% ( -0.19) | 12.38% ( 0.19) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
61.75% ( -0.39) | 38.25% ( 0.39) |
Sparta Rotterdam Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.42% ( -0.83) | 33.57% ( 0.82) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.78% ( -0.91) | 70.22% ( 0.91) |
Score Analysis |
FC Twente | Draw | Sparta Rotterdam |
2-1 @ 9.9% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 9.07% ( 0.23) 1-0 @ 8.68% ( 0.28) 3-1 @ 6.89% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 6.32% ( 0.11) 3-2 @ 3.76% ( -0.1) 4-1 @ 3.6% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 3.3% ( 0.04) 4-2 @ 1.96% ( -0.07) 5-1 @ 1.5% ( -0.03) 5-0 @ 1.38% ( 0) Other @ 3.91% Total : 60.28% | 1-1 @ 9.48% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 5.4% ( -0.11) 0-0 @ 4.16% ( 0.16) 3-3 @ 1.37% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.21% Total : 20.62% | 1-2 @ 5.17% ( -0.06) 0-1 @ 4.54% ( 0.08) 0-2 @ 2.48% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.97% ( -0.08) 1-3 @ 1.88% ( -0.07) 0-3 @ 0.9% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.17% Total : 19.1% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 33 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 108 | 20 | 88 | 88 |
2 | Feyenoord | 33 | 25 | 6 | 2 | 88 | 26 | 62 | 81 |
3 | FC Twente | 33 | 20 | 6 | 7 | 67 | 35 | 32 | 66 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 33 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 67 | 36 | 31 | 64 |
5 | Ajax | 33 | 15 | 10 | 8 | 72 | 59 | 13 | 55 |
6 | NECNijmegen | 33 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 64 | 50 | 14 | 50 |
7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 33 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 46 | 44 | 2 | 49 |
8 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 49 | 47 | 2 | 46 |
9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 33 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 45 | 45 | 0 | 43 |
10 | Heerenveen | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 52 | 68 | -16 | 37 |
11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 37 | 56 | -19 | 37 |
12 | PEC Zwolle | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 44 | 65 | -21 | 36 |
13 | Almere CityAlmere City | 33 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 32 | 55 | -23 | 34 |
14 | Heracles | 33 | 9 | 5 | 19 | 41 | 74 | -33 | 32 |
15 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 37 | 53 | -16 | 29 |
16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 33 | 6 | 11 | 16 | 50 | 69 | -19 | 29 |
R | FC VolendamVolendam | 33 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 33 | 86 | -53 | 19 |
R | Vitesse | 33 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 28 | 72 | -44 | 5 |
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