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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 81.63%. A draw had a probability of 12.4% and a win for Willem II had a probability of 6.01%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.8%) and 1-0 (9.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.88%), while for a Willem II win it was 0-1 (2.13%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
Result | ||
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Willem II |
81.63% | 12.36% | 6.01% |
Both teams to score 43.81% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
65.77% | 34.23% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
43.87% | 56.13% |
AZ Alkmaar Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
93.65% | 6.35% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
76.15% | 23.86% |
Willem II Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
46.77% | 53.23% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
13.21% | 86.79% |
Score Analysis |
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Willem II |
2-0 @ 12.84% 3-0 @ 11.8% 1-0 @ 9.32% 4-0 @ 8.14% 2-1 @ 8.1% 3-1 @ 7.45% 4-1 @ 5.13% 5-0 @ 4.49% 5-1 @ 2.83% 3-2 @ 2.35% 6-0 @ 2.06% 4-2 @ 1.62% 6-1 @ 1.3% Other @ 4.18% Total : 81.61% | 1-1 @ 5.88% 0-0 @ 3.38% 2-2 @ 2.55% Other @ 0.55% Total : 12.36% | 0-1 @ 2.13% 1-2 @ 1.85% Other @ 2.03% Total : 6.01% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 33 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 108 | 20 | 88 | 88 |
2 | Feyenoord | 33 | 25 | 6 | 2 | 88 | 26 | 62 | 81 |
3 | FC Twente | 33 | 20 | 6 | 7 | 67 | 35 | 32 | 66 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 33 | 19 | 7 | 7 | 67 | 36 | 31 | 64 |
5 | Ajax | 33 | 15 | 10 | 8 | 72 | 59 | 13 | 55 |
6 | NECNijmegen | 33 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 64 | 50 | 14 | 50 |
7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 33 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 46 | 44 | 2 | 49 |
8 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 33 | 13 | 7 | 13 | 49 | 47 | 2 | 46 |
9 | Go Ahead Eagles | 33 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 45 | 45 | 0 | 43 |
10 | Heerenveen | 33 | 10 | 7 | 16 | 52 | 68 | -16 | 37 |
11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 37 | 56 | -19 | 37 |
12 | PEC Zwolle | 33 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 44 | 65 | -21 | 36 |
13 | Almere CityAlmere City | 33 | 7 | 13 | 13 | 32 | 55 | -23 | 34 |
14 | Heracles | 33 | 9 | 5 | 19 | 41 | 74 | -33 | 32 |
15 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 33 | 7 | 8 | 18 | 37 | 53 | -16 | 29 |
16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 33 | 6 | 11 | 16 | 50 | 69 | -19 | 29 |
R | FC VolendamVolendam | 33 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 33 | 86 | -53 | 19 |
R | Vitesse | 33 | 6 | 5 | 22 | 28 | 72 | -44 | 5 |
> Eredivisie Full Table |