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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 79.51%. A draw had a probability of 12.9% and a win for FC Volendam had a probability of 7.59%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.13%) and 2-1 (8.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.95%), while for a FC Volendam win it was 1-2 (2.35%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
Result | ||
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | FC Volendam |
79.51% ( -0.04) | 12.9% ( 0.01) | 7.59% ( 0.03) |
Both teams to score 51.36% ( 0.16) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
70.21% ( 0.1) | 29.79% ( -0.1) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
49.06% ( 0.12) | 50.94% ( -0.12) |
AZ Alkmaar Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
94.15% ( 0.02) | 5.85% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
77.54% ( 0.04) | 22.45% ( -0.03) |
FC Volendam Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
54.56% ( 0.16) | 45.44% ( -0.16) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
18.71% ( 0.13) | 81.28% ( -0.13) |
Score Analysis |
AZ Alkmaar | Draw | FC Volendam |
2-0 @ 10.71% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 10.13% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 8.45% ( 0) 3-1 @ 7.99% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 7.55% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 7.19% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 5.67% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 4.08% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 3.22% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 3.15% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 2.24% ( 0.02) 6-0 @ 1.93% ( -0) 6-1 @ 1.52% ( 0.01) 5-2 @ 1.27% ( 0.01) Other @ 4.38% Total : 79.5% | 1-1 @ 5.95% ( -0) 2-2 @ 3.33% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 2.66% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.96% Total : 12.9% | 1-2 @ 2.35% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 2.1% ( -0) Other @ 3.15% Total : 7.59% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | PSV EindhovenPSV | 32 | 28 | 3 | 1 | 107 | 19 | 88 | 87 |
2 | Feyenoord | 32 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 85 | 24 | 61 | 78 |
3 | FC Twente | 32 | 19 | 6 | 7 | 60 | 33 | 27 | 63 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 32 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 64 | 36 | 28 | 61 |
5 | Ajax | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 69 | 59 | 10 | 52 |
6 | NECNijmegen | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 62 | 47 | 15 | 50 |
7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 32 | 13 | 10 | 9 | 46 | 43 | 3 | 49 |
8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 32 | 11 | 10 | 11 | 45 | 42 | 3 | 43 |
9 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | 48 | 47 | 1 | 43 |
10 | Heerenveen | 32 | 10 | 7 | 15 | 51 | 65 | -14 | 37 |
11 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 32 | 9 | 9 | 14 | 36 | 55 | -19 | 36 |
12 | PEC Zwolle | 32 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 43 | 64 | -21 | 35 |
13 | Almere CityAlmere City | 32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | 32 | 52 | -20 | 34 |
14 | Heracles | 32 | 9 | 5 | 18 | 41 | 70 | -29 | 32 |
15 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 32 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 36 | 52 | -16 | 28 |
16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 46 | 69 | -23 | 26 |
R | FC VolendamVolendam | 32 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 31 | 79 | -48 | 19 |
R | Vitesse | 32 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 25 | 71 | -46 | 2 |
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