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Preview: Cheltenham Town vs. Carlisle United - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's League One clash between Cheltenham Town and Carlisle United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Since this article was published, this match has been postponed due to a frozen pitch.

Cheltenham Town could move outside of League One's relegation places by beating Carlisle United on Saturday.

The visitors have lost four of their last five league games to fall to second bottom in the table.


Match preview

Cheltenham Town's manager Michael Duff and Sean Long after the match in February 2021© Reuters

After failing to score in any of their opening 11 games of the season - collecting just one point in the process - Cheltenham appeared to be dead and buried at the foot of the table. However, since losing his first two games in charge, the Robins have only lost four of 14 ensuing league games under Darrell Clarke.

The former Port Vale boss replaced Wade Elliott in late September, inheriting a team completely devoid of confidence despite finishing 16th last season. Yet their hugely impressive 2-1 win against league leaders Portsmouth in their last completed match moved them within three points of safety.

Tom Bradbury's own goal had given the visitors the lead four minutes after half time, and Pompey would have expected to go on and win from there. Liam Sercombe's quickfire brace within five minutes of his team-mate's own goal turned the match on its head, though, with Cheltenham surviving their opponents' dominance of possession during the latter stages.

Like Reading immediately above them in the table on goal difference, Cheltenham possess a game in hand on 20th-placed Exeter City, after both relegation-threatened sides had their matches abandoned last weekend. Should Exeter lose to Cambridge United and Reading fail to beat Wigan Athletic, a victory would move Cheltenham to safety for the first time this season.

Carlisle United's Ben Barclay celebrates scoring their third goal with teammates on May 20, 2023© Reuters

Carlisle, on the other hand, are drifting ominously back to League Two after being promoted via the playoffs last season. Paul Simpson's side's 2-1 defeat away to Barnsley on Tuesday means that they have only won once in their last 13 league matches.

As a result, the Cumbrians sit six points from safety having played more matches than any other team in the division. They had taken a surprise early lead at Oakwell in midweek via Luke Armstrong's opener, but second-half strikes from Devante Cole and Herbie Kane gave promotion-chasing Barnsley a crucial victory. Carlisle had already been soundly beaten 3-1 at home by another playoff side in the form of Oxford United last weekend.

However, the club's fanbase may have gained some hope of staying up since the January transfer window opened, having seen Simpson backed in the form of signing Armstrong, Harrison Neal, and Harry Lewis. Armstrong's first goal for the club will be viewed as a step in the right direction for his new club, as the 27-year-old hit double figures in successive seasons for Harrogate Town in League Two.

Saturday's long trip to Gloucestershire is clearly a crucial one for Simpson and his players, as they attempt to move level on points with their opponents. Losing further ground on a direct rival would spell disaster for Carlisle, who on current form are only heading in one direction despite their recent signings.

Cheltenham Town League One form:


Carlisle United League One form:



Team News

General view of Cheltenham Town's Whaddon Road from 2014© Reuters

Having had their match against Bolton Wanderers abandoned due to the death of a fan inside the Toughsheet Community Stadium, Cheltenham's players should be fresh for this fixture. However, Clarke will have to have one eye on their rearranged fixture against the Trotters on Tuesday.

The 46-year-old could name the same starting XI that defeated Portsmouth in their last completed match, with Sercombe hoping to get himself on the scoresheet once again after bagging a brace in that fixture.

Carlisle, on the other hand, have played twice since their forthcoming opponents last completed a match. Simpson could be contemplating making a few changes as a result, but in truth he has very few options to turn to.

Forwards Joe Garner and Sean Maguire were both unused substitutes against Barnsley in midweek and will hope to feature at some stage, but Armstrong and Daniel Butterworth are likely to start in tandem in attack once again.


Cheltenham Town possible starting lineup:
Southwood; Smith, Davies, Bradbury; Long, Pett, Sercombe, Williams; Bonds; Keena, Lloyd

Carlisle United possible starting lineup:
Lewis; Lavelle, Huntington, Mellish; Ellis, McCalmont, Moxon, Neal, Armer; Butterworth, Armstrong


SM words green background

We say: Cheltenham Town 1-0 Carlisle United

Although both of these sides will head into this match inside the relegation zone, they have been on massively contrasting trajectories in recent months. Cheltenham appear to have completely overcome their disastrous start to the season, and will be confident of staying up under Clarke's tutelage.

Carlisle, on the other hand, are in poor form and are up against it to avoid defeat on Saturday. We expect the hosts to continue their positive momentum and claim a narrow victory, which could move them outside of the bottom four positions.



For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.


Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data

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Game History

How you voted: Cheltenham vs Carlisle

Cheltenham Town
56.3%
Draw
12.5%
Carlisle United
31.3%
16
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Leyton Orient manager Richie Wellens before the match on April 18, 2023
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CPortsmouth462813578413797
2Derby CountyDerby462881078374192
3Bolton WanderersBolton462512986513587
4Peterborough UnitedPeterborough462591289612884
5Oxford UnitedOxford Utd4622111379562377
6Barnsley4621131282641876
7Lincoln CityLincoln4620141265402574
8Blackpool4621101565481773
9Stevenage4619141357461171
10Wycombe WanderersWycombe461714156055565
11Leyton Orient461811175355-265
12Wigan AthleticWigan462010166356762
13Exeter CityExeter461710194661-1561
14Northampton TownNorthampton46179205766-960
15Bristol Rovers46169215268-1657
16Charlton AthleticCharlton461120156465-153
17Reading461611196870-253
18Cambridge UnitedCambridge461212223961-2248
19Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury46139243567-3248
20Burton Albion461210243967-2846
21Cheltenham TownCheltenham46128264165-2444
RFleetwood TownFleetwood461013234972-2343
RPort Vale461011254174-3341
RCarlisle UnitedCarlisle4679304181-4030


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