The Parc des Princes may have lost its fear factor in 2023, but PSG have still managed at least two goals in each of their last three contests, and a fired-up Mbappe can always be relied on to terrorise opposing defences.
The anticipated returns of Ugarte and Marquinhos will also add a layer of steel to the Parisiens' XI, but Dortmund's in-form attackers should still have a glint in their eyes and can claim a point for their side in what promises to be a captivating clash.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paris Saint-Germain win with a probability of 41.58%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 36.28% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Paris Saint-Germain win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.36%) and 3-1 (5.09%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 (7.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.12%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Paris Saint-Germain would win this match.
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