Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tunisia win with a probability of 54.25%. A win for Mali had a probability of 22.89% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tunisia win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.64%) and 2-0 (8.84%). The likeliest Mali win was 1-2 (5.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.72%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.
