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League One final day permutations: Four teams battling to avoid three relegation spots

Sports Mole rounds up all of the permutations for the final day of the 2022-23 League One season, with the title, a playoff place and three relegation spots up for grabs.

The final day of the 2022-23 League One season is upon us and, while the identities of those going automatically back up to the Championship have already been confirmed, there is plenty still to be decided in England's third tier.

The top two are both gunning to reach the 100-point mark - something two teams have never achieved in the same League One season before - with the title also on the line on the final day.

There is also the final playoff spot to be secured, and three of the four relegation places are still up for grabs with four teams battling to avoid the drop.

Here, Sports Mole rounds up all of the permutations for Sunday's final round of League One fixtures.



SUNDAY'S LEAGUE ONE PERMUTATIONS

Ipswich Town's Freddie Ladapo celebrates scoring their second goal with teammates on November 7, 2022© Reuters

Already promoted: Plymouth Argyle, Ipswich Town

Guaranteed playoffs: Sheffield Wednesday, Barnsley, Bolton Wanderers

Already relegated: Forest Green Rovers

WHAT COULD HAPPEN THIS WEEKEND?

  • Either Plymouth or Ipswich will be crowned champions

  • Either Derby County or Peterborough will clinch final playoff spot

  • Three of Accrington Stanley, Cambridge United, Morecambe and MK Dons will be relegated



  • TITLE BATTLE

    League One title battle May 6 2023

    KEY FIXTURES

    Fleetwood Town vs. Ipswich (Sunday, 12pm)
    Port Vale vs. Plymouth (Sunday, 12pm)

    Both Plymouth and Ipswich can go into the final day safe in the knowledge that their place in the Championship is assured for next season, but the League One title is still up for grabs.

    Indeed, both teams could still end up with 100-point tallies this season - something only three teams have ever managed since the rebranding of the division - if they win on the final day of the season.

    Plymouth currently sit in pole position and know that a victory over 18th-placed Port Vale would be enough for them to win the third-tier title for the first time since 2003-04.

    However, should they drop points then the door would be open for Ipswich; the Tractor Boys are just one point adrift of Argyle, and so if they win at mid-table Fleetwood and Plymouth drop points at Port Vale then Ipswich will be crowned champions of the third tier for the first time since 1956-57.



    PLAYOFF PICTURE

    League One playoff picture May 6 2023

    KEY FIXTURES

    Barnsley vs. Peterborough (Sunday, 12pm)
    Sheffield Wednesday vs. Derby County (Sunday, 12pm)

    Just one playoff spot remains up for grabs on the final day, and only two teams can claim it as Derby and Peterborough both look to seal a final shot at promotion back to the Championship.

    Derby are in the driving seat with a two-point lead and a superior goal difference, meaning that a victory at third-placed Sheffield Wednesday would guarantee their place in the top six.

    However, the goal difference is by no means insurmountable for Peterborough, meaning that a draw for Derby could open the door for Darren Ferguson's men to snatch sixth place at the death - although Posh need to win at fourth-placed Barnsley themselves to stand any chance.

    Should Derby share the spoils and Peterborough win by three or more goals then Peterborough will claim the final playoff spot, while a Derby defeat coupled with a Peterborough win at Barnsley would also see Posh join Wednesday, Barnsley and Bolton in the playoffs.



    RELEGATION BATTLE

    League One relegation May 6 2023

    KEY FIXTURES

    Burton Albion vs. MK Dons (Sunday, 12pm)
    Cambridge vs. Forest Green Rovers (Sunday, 12pm)
    Exeter City vs. Morecambe (Sunday, 12pm)
    Oxford United vs. Accrington (Sunday, 12pm)

    Most of the final day drama is likely to take place at the bottom of the table, where four teams are separated by three points with three relegation spots still up for grabs.

    Of those teams, Accrington are in by far the worst position, and it would take a footballing miracle for them to somehow avoid relegation to League Two on Sunday.

    Accrington would need to beat Oxford, hope that MK Dons and Morecambe both lose and that Cambridge fail to win, all with a 16-goal swing in goal difference in order to stay up.

    Similarly, Cambridge find themselves in must-win territory, although they do have the kindest final-day fixture at home to already-relegated Forest Green.

    Even a win in that match may not be enough if either Morecambe or MK Dons also win, but victory coupled with dropped points for both of the teams immediately above them would see Cambridge stay up.

    A draw could mathematically be enough, although they would then need MK Dons to lose by eight or more goals, and for Morecambe to lose too.

    Goal difference is all that separates MK Dons and Morecambe, meaning that Morecambe will stay up if they win and MK Dons fail to win.

    A draw would bring others into the equation, but could be enough for Morecambe if MK Dons lose and Cambridge fail to win - essentially The Shrimps need to better MK Dons' result and at least match Cambridge's result to stay up.

    MK Dons have matters in their own hands more than anyone else due to their superior goal difference, meaning that they will stay up as long as they match or better Morecambe and Cambridge's results.

    If all three of them lose then Accrington do come back into the equation, although that would still take an unlikely swing in goal difference.

    It is also worth noting that Oxford United are not quite mathematically safe, but they would need to lose, and for MK Dons and Morecambe to both win, with a 24-goal swing, to be in any danger.



    LEAGUE ONE TABLE IN FULL

    League One table May 6 2023

    Click here for League One form guides, home and away tables, top scorers, best defences, best attacks and more



    THIS WEEKEND'S LEAGUE ONE SCHEDULE IN FULL

    Sunday, May 7

    All kickoffs at 12pm

    Barnsley vs. Peterborough
    Bristol Rovers vs. Bolton
    Burton vs. MK Dons
    Cambridge vs. Forest Green
    Cheltenham vs. Charlton Athletic
    Exeter vs. Morecambe
    Fleetwood vs. Ipswich
    Lincoln City vs. Shrewsbury Town
    Oxford vs. Accrington
    Port Vale vs. Plymouth
    Portsmouth vs. Wycombe Wanderers
    Sheffield Wednesday vs. Derby

    Click here for a full list of this season's League One results


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