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Preview: Andrey Rublev vs. Novak Djokovic - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Wimbledon quarter-final between Andrey Rublev and Novak Djokovic, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

Six months on from their Australian Open quarter-final showdown, Andrey Rublev and Novak Djokovic meet once again in a Grand Slam last eight for Tuesday's Wimbledon quarter-final on Centre Court.

The Russian seventh seed overcame Alexander Bublik in five sets in the fourth round, while the defending champion outlasted the big-serving Hubert Hurkacz in a four-set thriller.


Match preview

Andrey Rublev reacts at Wimbledon on July 9, 2023© Reuters

Following his two-day success over Hurkacz on Monday, Djokovic waxed lyrical about Rublev's forehand, and with good reason too, as that weapon provided the Russian with the biggest get out of jail free card during his five-set spectacular with Kazakhstan's Bublik.

With nine games gone in the final set and Rublev leading 30-15, Bublik had seemingly done enough to level the scores with a vicious down-the-line shot, but Rublev raced across the back of the court and somehow cleared the net with an astonishing forehand on the stretch.

All of Rublev, Bublik and the Centre Court crowd were left in disbelief, and Rublev followed up that once-in-a-lifetime shot with a 21st ace of the day to seal a remarkable 7-5 6-3 6-7[8] 6-7[5] 6-4 win in three hours and 17 minutes.

Of course, Rublev's 21 aces were still dwarfed by Bublik's 39 - although the Kazakhstani also double-faulted 14 times for good measure - as the Russian reached his first-ever Wimbledon quarter-final and his eighth in total at major events, but he is yet to reach his maiden Grand Slam semi-final.

Rublev's triumph over Bublik also saw the 25-year-old earn a slice of revenge for his three-set loss to the Kazakhstani in the final of June's Halle Open, meaning that the Russian is now 0-2 for ATP Tour grass-court finals, having lost to Ugo Humbert in the same event two years ago.

Novak Djokovic in action at Wimbledon on July 3, 2023© Reuters

The time is nigh for Rublev to finally end his Grand Slam quarter-final curse, but there are few more daunting challenges than Djokovic on Centre Court, where the 23-time major winner remains without defeat since his 2013 final loss to Andy Murray thanks to a four-set slog with Hurkacz.

Having only arrived on court at 8:30pm on Sunday - two and a half hours before the 11pm curfew - a suspension was almost inevitable, and the two players retired for the night after Djokovic capitalised on untimely errors from Hurkacz to edge the opening two tie-breakers.

A refreshed Hurkacz used his 6ft 5in frame to good effect when the players returned to Centre Court on Monday, but Djokovic lost just one point on serve during the fourth set to prevail 7-6[6] 7-6[6] 5-7 6-4 in just over three hours, rendering Hurkacz's 33 aces inconsequential.

Hurkacz can at least depart with the consolation prize of being the first man to win a set against Djokovic at the current edition of Wimbledon, but the Serbian is now five-for-five in tie-breakers at SW19 this year and only had 16 unforced errors to his name throughout his fourth-round showdown.

Also seeing off Pedro Cachin, Jordan Thompson and the career Grand Slam-chasing Stanislas Wawrinka - albeit not without a fight on each occasion - Djokovic's now sets out to prolong Rublev's quarter-final misery and set up a semi-final with his compatriot Roman Safiullin or Italian trailblazer Jannik Sinner,


Tournament so far

Andrey Rublev:

First round: vs. Max Purcell 6-3 7-5 6-4
Second round: vs. Aslan Karatsev 6-7[4] 6-3 6-4 7-5
Third round: vs. David Goffin 6-3 6-7[8] 7-6[5] 6-2
Round of 16: vs. Alexander Bublik 7-5 6-3 6-7[8] 6-7[5] 6-4

Novak Djokovic:

First round: vs. Pedro Cachin 6-3 6-3 7-6[4]
Second round: vs. Jordan Thompson 6-3 7-6[4] 7-5
Third round: vs. Stanislas Wawrinka 6-3 6-1 7-6[5]
Round of 16: vs. Hubert Hurkacz 7-6[6] 7-6[6] 5-7 6-4


Head To Head

ATP Finals (2021) - Round robin: Djokovic wins 6-3 6-2
Serbia Open (2022) - Final: Rublev wins 6-2 6-7[4] 6-0
ATP Finals (2022) - Round robin: Djokovic wins 6-4 6-1
Australian Open (2023) - Quarter-final: Djokovic wins 6-1 6-2 6-4

Familiar foes at prestigious events, Djokovic and Rublev will clash for the fifth time this week, and the former boast three wins from their previous four meetings compared to just one for Rublev.

For the past two years, Djokovic and Rublev have faced one another in the round-robin section of the ATP Finals, where the Serbian boasts back-to-back straight-set wins either side of an upset in the final of the 2022 Serbian Open.

Rublev remarkably came up with a bagel to deny Djokovic the title in his homeland that day, but the Russian's most recent Grand Slam quarter-final appearance at the 2023 Australian Open ended in a three-set loss to the world number two.


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We say: Djokovic to win in five sets

Rublev will undoubtedly boast the fresher legs on Tuesday due to Djokovic's two-day battle with Hurkacz, and the Russian - who already knows how to beat the 36-year-old - should make his youthful energy count to a certain degree.

A fatigued Djokovic may struggle to limit the effectiveness of Rublev's venomous forehand, but the latter may also be feeling the effects of a gruelling week - having only won one match in straight sets - and we still have faith in the defending champion to march on to the semi-finals, but not without a tremendous effort.

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Novak Djokovic in action at Wimbledon on July 3, 2023
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