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Preview: Daniil Medvedev vs. Novak Djokovic - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Sunday's US Open final between Daniil Medvedev and Novak Djokovic, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

Two years on from crushing Novak Djokovic's dreams of a calendar-year Grand Slam, Daniil Medvedev will endeavour to make lightning strike twice in New York when he pits his wits against the new world number one in Sunday's mouthwatering US Open final.

The Russian ended Carlos Alcaraz's title defence in a four-set spectacular to reach the showpiece match, while Djokovic got the better of 20-year-old home favourite Ben Shelton to conclude the youngster's fairytale run.


Match preview

Daniil Medvedev reacts at the US Open on September 8, 2023© Reuters

Medvedev memorably made no bones about the unforgiving New York climate during his quarter-final triumph over Andrey Rublev, but the third seed was the one bringing the heat during his final-four showdown with reigning champion Alcaraz, who succumbed to one of Medvedev's finest performances in recent memory.

So often renowned for his defensive mastery - particularly on hard courts - Medvedev proved equally adept in his offensive game against Alcaraz and upset the odds to prevail 7-6[3] 6-1 3-6 6-3 in front of the Arthur Ashe Stadium crowd, most of whom were evidently rooting for the Spaniard.

A first-set flurry of double faults threatened to derail Medvedev's aspirations of Flushing Meadows glory, but the 27-year-old's accuracy was unparalleled throughout the contest, and there was no quelling the Russian juggernaut once the early nerves had been settled.

Firing 10 aces compared to zero for a slightly off-colour Alcaraz, Medvedev advanced to a record-breaking fifth Grand Slam final - no Russian man before him had ever reached so many in the Open Era - and few will forget his maiden major triumph on American soil two years ago.

With runners-up finishes at the 2021 and 2022 Australian Opens also on his CV, Medvedev enters Sunday's final with an eye-catching 80.6% win rate on hard courts throughout his career, although his upcoming foe is also well-versed in silencing the Arthur Ashe crowd as he bids to write yet another page of history.

Novak Djokovic reacts at the US Open on September 8, 2023© Reuters

There were no prizes for guessing whose side the 23,000-strong audience was on when Shelton and Djokovic clashed racquets in Friday's first semi-final, as the American protege asked questions of the Serbian's exemplary return play with an array of blistering serves and groundstrokes.

Shelton proved too hot to handle on a couple of occasions and earned two breaks against the 23-time Grand Slam winner - including when Djokovic was serving for the match - while he also pegged his more esteemed opponent back to 5-4 from a 5-1 deficit in the tie-breaker.

However, the youngster's powers inevitably waned as he netted a forehand for the last time to send Djokovic through to the final 6-3 6-2 7-6[4] in two hours and 41 minutes, and a rather terse exchange at the net followed after Djokovic had mimicked Shelton's celebration.

Still possessing the mentality monster tag, five of Djokovic's six victories so far at the 2023 US Open have been in straight sets - the outlier being a five-set slog versus compatriot Laslo Djere, where he came from two sets down to prevail - and a 10th Flushing Meadows final is now on the agenda for the returning world number one.

Winning US Open title number four would be a fitting way for Djokovic to celebrate his coronation at the top of the charts, and the 36-year-old has now reached the final in all four major events this year. Unlike in 2021, a calendar-year Grand Slam is off the cards this time around, but Djokovic needs no further encouragement to avenge that beating and join all-time record holder Margaret Court in the exclusive 24 major titles club.


Tournament so far

Daniil Medvedev:

First round: vs. Attila Balazs 6-1 6-1 6-0
Second round: vs. Christopher O'Connell 6-2 6-2 6-7[6] 6-2
Third round: vs. Sebastian Baez 6-2 6-2 7-6[6]
Round of 16: vs. Alex de Minaur 2-6 6-4 6-1 6-2
Quarter-final: vs. Andrey Rublev 6-4 6-3 6-4
Semi-final: vs. Carlos Alcaraz 7-6[3] 6-1 3-6 6-3

Novak Djokovic:

First round: vs. Alexandre Muller 6-0 6-2 6-3
Second round: vs. Bernabe Zapata Miralles 6-4 6-1 6-1
Third round: vs. Laslo Djere 4-6 4-6 6-1 6-1 6-3
Round of 16: vs. Borna Gojo 6-2 7-5 6-4
Quarter-final: vs. Taylor Fritz 6-1 6-4 6-4
Semi-final: vs. Ben Shelton 6-3 6-2 7-6[4]


Head To Head

Davis Cup (2017) - Round-robin: Djokovic wins 3-6 6-4 6-1 1-0 ret
Eastbourne International (2017) - Semi-final: Djokovic wins 6-4 6-4
Australian Open (2019) - Fourth round: Djokovic wins 6-4 6-7[5] 6-2 6-3
Monte Carlo Masters (2019) - Quarter-final: Medvedev wins 6-3 4-6 6-2
Cincinnati Masters (2019) - Semi-final: Medvedev wins 3-6 6-3 6-3
ATP Cup (2020) - Semi-final: Djokovic wins 6-1 5-7 6-4
ATP Finals (2020) - Round-robin: Medvedev wins 6-3 6-3
Australian Open (2021) - Final: Djokovic wins 7-5 6-2 6-2
US Open (2021) - Final: Medvedev wins 6-4 6-4 6-4
Paris Masters (2021) - Final: Djokovic wins 4-6 6-3 6-3
Astana Open (2022) - Semi-final: Djokovic wins 4-6 7-6 ret.
ATP Finals (2022) - Round-robin: Djokovic wins 6-3 6-7[5] 7-6[2]
Adelaide International (2023) - Semi-final: Djokovic wins 6-3 6-4
Dubai Tennis Championships (2023) - Semi-final: Medvedev wins 6-4 6-4

Medvedev and Djokovic may very well be sick of the sight of one another by now, having met 14 times down the years at the top level, and the Serbian leads the head-to-head tally with nine wins to the Russian's five.

However, one of Medvedev's five victories over the 23-time major winner came in straight sets during the final of the 2021 US Open - where he won his maiden Grand Slam title - and their captivating rivalry that year also saw Djokovic defeat the 27-year-old in the Australian Open final and Paris Masters showpiece match.

The latter success marked the start of a four-match winning streak for Djokovic against Medvedev, but the third seed prevailed 6-4 6-4 in the most recent meeting during the semi-finals of this year's Dubai Tennis Championships, before going on to sink compatriot Rublev in the final.


SM words green background

We say: Djokovic to win in five sets

Nothing less than a perfect match will do for Medvedev if he is to hoist the trophy aloft once more, but having sent Alcaraz packing with one of his best displays on the tour yet, few should be counting the Russian out on his favoured hard surface.

Medvedev's defensive excellence and Djokovic's returning prowess could lead to some magnificent baseline rallies, and neither man's mental fortitude can be called into question either.

However, Djokovic will have had a few more hours to recover from his semi-final exertions, and with the 36-year-old still looking as sharp as ever physically, we give him the edge to win Grand Slam title number 24, but only just.

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Daniil Medvedev reacts at the US Open on September 8, 2023
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