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Preview: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Daniil Medvedev - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Friday's US Open semi-final between Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev, including predictions, head-to-head record and their tournament so far.

Two months on from their showdown in the Wimbledon semi-finals, Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev prepare for battle on Friday with a spot in the final of the 2023 US Open on the line.

The Spaniard comfortably defeated Alexander Zverev in three sets to progress to the final four, while his third-seeded opponent sunk compatriot Andrey Rublev in extremely harsh conditions.


Match preview

Carlos Alcaraz reacts at the US Open on September 7, 2023© Reuters

Once again, the Arthur Ashe Stadium was treated to a masterclass in athleticism from Alcaraz on Wednesday night, as the reigning US Open and Wimbledon champion ended Zverev's hopes of Flushing Meadows stardom with exactly two hours and 30 minutes on the board.

With extreme temperatures gripping New York, the 20-year-old may not have been at his brilliant best throughout the contest - making 34 unforced errors compared to 29 winners - but he saved all five break points he faced and ruthlessly took each of the four he brought up to prevail 6-3 6-2 6-4.

Mixing up his game with unstoppable groundstrokes and delicate drop shots, Alcaraz sealed a semi-final berth on a long forehand return from Zverev to move onto 17-1 in Grand Slam matches this year - the best record for any under-21 male player in the Open Era.

Alcaraz heads into the final four having dropped just one set in New York so far this year - suffering a brief scare against Great Britain's Dan Evans before winning in four - and in 33 previous Grand Slam matches where he has taken the first set, he has won all 33 of them.

Not since losing to Mikael Ymer at the 2021 Australian Open has Alcaraz lost a major contest after winning the opener, and while he may have been knocked off his number one perch by Novak Djokovic, a reunion with his Wimbledon final foe could be in order should he repeat his SW19 success against Medvedev.

Daniil Medvedev reacts at the US Open on September 6, 2023© Reuters

While Alcaraz and Zverev's battle did not conclude until 1:39am - when the temperatures had dropped slightly - Russian duo Medvedev and Rublev were forced to give it their all in blistering afternoon temperatures, leading to a stark warning into the camera from world number three that players could "die" in such conditions.

The inhaler was also brought out for Medvedev as he and his good friend Rublev put on a spectacular show for the Arthur Ashe crowd, but for the ninth time in nine Grand Slam quarter-final matches, Rublev agonisingly came up short despite leading by a break in every set.

From being 3-0 down in the first set, 3-1 down in the second and 4-2 down in the third, Medvedev produced an astonishing comeback each time to win 6-4 6-3 6-4, despite making nine double faults and only winning 29% of points behind his second serve.

With swimming icon Michael Phelps watching on, a sweat-drenched Medvedev - who looked as if he had just emerged from a pool himself - punched his ticket to a fourth US Open semi-final in five years as Rublev sent one final forehand into the net, and his only defeat at this stage in New York came to eventual winner Dominic Thiem in 2020.

The omens are therefore promising for Alcaraz should he deny Medvedev an appearance in a Grand Slam final for the second time this year, but with the Russian's 85% win rate at the US Open being his best at all four majors, Alcaraz can ill-afford to show any signs of weakness against the hard-court specialist.


Tournament so far

Carlos Alcaraz:

First round: vs. Dominik Koepfer 6-2 3-2 ret.
Second round: vs. Lloyd Harris 6-3 6-1 7-6[4]
Third round: vs. Dan Evans 6-2 6-3 4-6 6-3
Round of 16: vs. Matteo Arnaldi 6-3 6-3 6-4
Quarter-final: vs. Alexander Zverev 6-3 6-2 6-4

Daniil Medvedev:

First round: vs. Attila Balazs 6-1 6-1 6-0
Second round: vs. Christopher O'Connell 6-2 6-2 6-7[6] 6-2
Third round: vs. Sebastian Baez 6-2 6-2 7-6[6]
Round of 16: vs. Alex de Minaur 2-6 6-4 6-1 6-2
Quarter-final: vs. Andrey Rublev 6-4 6-3 6-4


Head To Head

Wimbledon (2021) - Second round: Medvedev wins 6-4 6-1 6-2
Indian Wells Masters (2023) - Final: Alcaraz wins 6-3 6-2
Wimbledon (2023) - Semi-final: Alcaraz wins 6-3 6-3 6-3

Alcaraz and Medvedev have met on three previous occasions in top-level matches, and the former leads the head-to-head tally by two wins to one, having been comfortably dispatched in their opening encounter in the second round at Wimbledon in 2021.

Now two years older and wiser, Alcaraz ruthlessly overcame Medvedev in straight sets during this year's Indian Wells Masters final, before haunting the nightmares of the third seed once again at the latest Wimbledon championships.

Besting Medvedev in a host of statistical categories - including first and second serve points won, net points won and overall winners - Alcaraz strolled past the 6ft 6in Russian in straight sets with under two hours on the board, before his breathtaking triumph over Djokovic in the final.


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We say: Alcaraz to win in four sets

Medvedev may have got the better of a teenage Alcaraz two years ago, but the Spaniard's all-around game has come on leaps and bounds since then, and even Medvedev's exemplary defensive play may count for little against the 20-year-old's aggressive and versatile approach.

Medvedev's eye-catching streak of performances on hard courts offers some hope, but having already fallen to Alcaraz's superiority twice this year, few will expect the Russian to make it third time lucky as the defending champion marches on to the headline match.

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