Preview: Australian Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alexander Zverev - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Alexander Zverev has spoken of preferring matches with Carlos Alcaraz to those against Jannik Sinner, and the German No. 1 now stands in the way of the top seed’s march to a first Australian Open final.

Alcaraz has been almost flawless en route to a first semi-final Down Under, failing to drop a set throughout his run, and he seeks another stunning performance to take down a fellow 24-time ATP champion in their 13th tour-level meeting.

Match preview

Alex de Minaur held his own for about an hour on Rod Laver Arena, until Alcaraz stepped up another level to outclass the Aussie 7-5, 6-2, 6-1 in two hours and 15 minutes.

Defeating the home hope extended the 22-year-old’s run without dropping a set since his tournament-opening victory, and another straight-sets win over the third seed cannot be ruled out, given the Spanish sensation’s form.

Having become the third-youngest player in the Open Era — after Novak Djokovic (20 years, 237 days) and Rafael Nadal (22 years, 83 days) — to reach the semi-finals of all the Majors, Career Grand Slam-chasing Alcaraz now bids for one more victory to make Sunday’s final.

Since suffering a quarter-final defeat to Djokovic 12 months ago, the top seed has secured a staggering 25 wins in 26 Grand Slam matches, with his only loss in that run coming against Sinner at Wimbledon, and there is no reason not to expect a 26th victory.

That outcome is undoubtedly anticipated, considering the top seed’s impressive record against top-10 opponents at Slams, where he has claimed 17 victories in 25 such contests and seeks an 18th in Friday’s first semi-final.

It will then be fascinating to see whether Zverev has any strategies up his sleeve for Friday’s contest, as the German star aims to reach consecutive Australian Open title matches and right last year’s perceived wrongs.

First, the world No. 3 must walk the talk after deliberately stating in Turin that facing Alcaraz — not Sinner — is the more favourable match-up.

That assertion is understandable, owing to his six previous victories over the young Spaniard, including one at this level in Australia two years ago, when the 28-year-old outsmarted the top seed in four sets.

Significantly more has changed since then, with Alcaraz now almost unstoppable in best-of-five contests before title matches, highlighted by a year-long unbeaten run since losing to Djokovic.

That is the magnitude of the challenge ahead of Zverev, who will be participating in his 11th Grand Slam semi-final on Friday as he seeks a place in Sunday’s decider.

The German’s nine previous runs to this stage have ended in disappointment on six occasions, though he has recorded victories in his last two against Casper Ruud and Djokovic — the latter of whom retired after one set 12 months ago — and the three-time Grand Slam finalist seeks a fourth appearance in a title match at this level.

Tournament so far

Carlos Alcaraz:

First round: vs. Adam Walton 6-3 7-6[2] 6-2

Second round: vs. Yannick Hanfmann 7-6[4] 6-3 6-2

Third round: vs. Corentin Moutet 6-2 6-4 6-1

Round of 16: vs. Tommy Paul 7-6[6] 6-4 7-5

Quarter-final: vs. Alex de Minaur 7-5 6-2 6-1

Alexander Zverev:

First round: vs. Gabriel Diallo 6-7[1] 6-1 6-4 6-2

Second round: vs. Alexandre Muller 6-3 4-6 6-3 6-4

Third round: vs. Cameron Norrie 7-5 4-6 6-3 6-1

Round of 16: vs. Francisco Cerundolo 6-2 6-4 6-4

Quarter-final: vs. Learner Tien 6-3 6-7[5] 6-1 7-6[3]

Head To Head

Cincinnati Masters (2025) - Semi-final: Alcaraz 6-4 6-3

ATP Finals (2024) - Round Robin: Zverev 7-6(5) 6-4

Roland Garros (2024) - Final: Alcaraz 6-3 2-6 5-7 6-1 6-2

Indian Wells (2024) - Quarter-final: Alcaraz 6-3 6-1

Australian Open (2024) - Quarter-final: Zverev 6-1 6-3 6-7(2) 6-4

ATP Finals (2023) - Round Robin: Zverev 6-7(3) 6-3 6-4

US Open (2023) - Quarter-final: Alcaraz 6-3 6-2 6-4

Madrid Masters (2023) - Round of 16: Alcaraz 6-1 6-2

Roland Garros (2022) - Quarter-final: Zverev 6-4 6-4 4-6 7-6(7)

Madrid Masters (2022) - Final: Alcaraz 6-3 6-1

Vienna (2021) - Semi-final: Zverev 6-3 6-3

Acapulco (2021) - Round of 32: Zverev 6-3 6-1

Alcaraz and Zverev are tied at 6-6 in their ATP Tour meetings, with the victor set to take a 7-6 lead after Friday’s semi-final.

The German player won three of their first four matches, while both competitors split the next four contests, each scoring two wins.

However, Alcaraz has defeated the 24-time ATP champion in three of their most recent contests, including the 2024 French Open final, where the world No. 3 led heading into the fourth set.

Friday’s meeting will mark the players’ fourth showdown at a Grand Slam, including their Australian Open quarter-final two years ago, and their head-to-head record at Majors stands at 2-2.

Notably, Zverev leads Alcaraz 5-3 on hard courts, although a closer look shows that the Spaniard has won three of five in outdoor conditions — at the 2023 US Open, Indian Wells (2024) and Cincinnati (2025).

We say: Alcaraz to win in four sets

Zverev may prefer this match-up to facing Sinner, but Alcaraz is undeniably the superior player on the men’s tour at present.

While the No. 1 seed could finally surrender a set in the last four, it is hard to objectively argue against the Spanish sensation securing a seventh tour-level victory over the German and advancing to compete for the Career Grand Slam against Djokovic or Sinner on Sunday.