Aryna Sabalenka vs. Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah - Australian Open prediction

Aryna Sabalenka will begin her quest for a third Australian Open singles crown on Sunday when she faces Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah in her opening match at Rod Laver Arena.

The top-seeded women’s player captured the Brisbane International earlier this month, defeating Marta Kostyuk in the final 6-4 6-3, while Tiantsoa recently exited in the quarter-finals of the Open BLS de Lomoges in her native France 6-1 6-7 1-6.

Match preview

Fresh off her first tournament victory since the US Open, Sabalenka should be feeling better about her overall game right now.

The Belarusian has been to three straight Australian Open finals and has not exited a singles event in the opening round since being upset by Carla Suarez Navarro at the 2020 Aussie Open.

That was also the last time she was ousted from her first match in a major tournament, having gone to four of the last five Grand Slam finals, with one semi-final appearance in between.

Although she has only won three singles tournaments since last May, the reigning women's champion at Flushing Meadows has not lost her opening match on tour since Ekaterina Alexandrova knocked her out of the Qatar TotalEnergies Open last February.

Early into 2026, she has been razor sharp in the serving department, firing 21 aces with only four double faults, while winning 90.7% of her service games.

To this stage of the year, Sabalenka has been strong on the forehand, particularly when off serve, winning 45.8% of her return points, while converting 39.8% of her break points.

© Imago / AAP

This weekend, Tiantsoa Rajaonah has an opportunity to make her mark on the WTA tour for the first time, and what a statement a victory here would be.

The French woman born in Madagascar has never reached the second round of a Grand Slam singles tournament before, and this will be her first time at this stage in Melbourne.

One and done has been a recurring theme for her, with the 20-year-old exiting two of her last three tournaments after her first match.

While she has not had much success of late, Rajaonah should be used to hard courts, having played on that surface in every singles event since the Grand Est Open in her native France in July.

Last year, she won 72.4% of her service games but committed her share of errors while serving, hitting 41 double faults and recording just 10 aces.

Overall, she won 57.9% of her service games in 2025 and boasted a solid 43.8% in return games, while winning 47.8% of her return points.

We say: Sabalenka to win in two sets

Sabalenka’s experience and resume in these big tournaments speaks for itself as she never seems overwhelmed on the big stage, and we believe Rajaonah could be in what is surely the biggest match of her career to date.