Preview: Australian Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Tommy Paul - prediction, form, head-to-head

Meeting for the third time in a Grand Slam tournament, Carlos Alcaraz will battle Tommy Paul in round four action at the Australian Open.

On Thursday, the top seed got past Corentin Moutet 6-2 6-4 6-1, while Paul won in a walkover versus Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 6-1 6-1.

Match preview

The score may not have indicated it, but round three was, in fact, a rather tricky match for Carlos Alcaraz to navigate through.

His French opponent forced him to expend a lot of energy with seemingly countless drop shots, a tactic that the Spaniard admitted made it difficult for him to focus.

In the end, though Alcaraz persevered, thanks in part to his speed and net presence, collecting 30 net points throughout the contest.

As a result, the Spaniard is one win away from making the quarter-finals of this tournament for a third successive occasion, having never made it beyond the last eight of the Aussie Open before.

Alcaraz has yet to lose a set at the event this year and has not lost a fourth-round encounter at a Grand Slam since Jannik Sinner beat him in four sets at Wimbledon in 2022.

While he had only three aces in his third-round affair, the Spaniard fired 30 winners and registered just one double fault in a match which lasted just over two hours.

Knowing what was on the horizon for him beyond round three, Tommy Paul may be thankful in a way to have gotten some rest ahead of this weekend.

A hamstring injury sustained by his Spanish opponent forced the latter to retire early, sending Paul into the fourth round for the third time in his last four Aussie Open appearances.

The American has advanced beyond this stage in two of the previous three editions of this tournament, defeating Davidovich Fokina to get to the quarter-finals last year.

Before the early ending to his round three contest, Paul had won an impressive 95% of his first serves and 75% of his second ones.

He played relatively mistake-free in his short time on the court, with a mere six unforced errors, while winning five of his eight break-point opportunities in less than an hour of work.

In addition to that, he won six of his seven net point opportunities and did not register a single double fault, all of which should give him confidence this weekend against his toughest opposition yet.

Tournament so far

Carlos Alcaraz:

First round: vs. Adam Walton 6-3 7-6 (7-2) 6-2

Second round: vs. Yannick Hanfmann 7-6 (7-4) 6-3 6-2

Third round: vs. Corentin Moutet 6-2 6-4 6-1

Tommy Paul:

First round: vs. Aleksandar Kovacevic 6-4 6-3 6-3

Second round: vs. Thiago Agustin Tirante 6-3 6-4 6-2

Third round: vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 6-1 6-1

Head To Head

ATP Master Canada (2022) - Round of 32: Paul wins 6-7 7-6 6-3

ATP Master Miami (2023) - Round of 16: Alcaraz wins 6-4 6-4

ATP Master Canada (2023) - Quarter-Finals: Paul wins 6-4 4-6 6-3

Cincinnati Open (2023) - Round of 16: Alcaraz wins 7-6 6-7 6-3

Wimbledon (2024) - Quarter-Finals: Alcaraz wins 5-7 6-4 6-2 6-2

Olympics (2024) - Quarter-Finals: Alcaraz wins 6-3 7-6

French Open (2025) - Quarter-Finals: Alcaraz wins 6-0 6-1 6-4

In the first of many meetings between them, Paul managed to hit 41 winners, while converting four break points to triumph in a close three-set affair in 2022.

When they met again in Miami, the Spaniard needed just over 90 minutes to dispatch Paul, winning 79% of his first serves without conceding a single break point.

Their return engagement in Canada saw the American commit just one double fault, while Alcaraz had six, and Paul saved three of his five break points to claim victory.

Later that year, in Cincinnati, there was little to choose between them, with the opening two sets going to a tiebreaker, with Alcaraz hitting 42 winners, to Paul’s 30.

At the All England Club in 2024, Alcaraz overcame a first-set loss, hitting seven aces to win en route to winning the tournament for the second time.

These two met for the first time on clay at the 2024 Olympics in a match which saw Alcaraz persevere despite a second-set tiebreaker in Paris.

Alcaraz played relatively error-free when they met at Rolland Garros last year, without a single double fault, while winning 88% of his first serves, while Paul won only 56% of his.

We say: Alcaraz to win in four sets

Paul has won over a dozen matches versus top-10 players, including a couple against Alcaraz, but we do not see it happening for him this weekend.

As we saw in round three, the Spaniard seems prepared for any approach his opponents might throw at him, and in the end, he’s got too many weapons that are sure to trouble Paul.