MX23RW : Thursday, May 22 09:51:25| >> :600:2147410:2147410:

Preview: Madrid Open: Jack Draper vs. Matteo Berrettini - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Monday's Madrid Open third-round match between Jack Draper and Matteo Berrettini, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

One of three British men battling for a place in the Madrid Open last 16, Jack Draper pits his wits against Matteo Berrettini for the third time in Monday's third-round meeting.

The fifth seed made light work of the Netherlands' Tallon Griekspoor in his opening battle, whereas Berrettini came through a marathon three-setter against the USA's Marcos Giron.


Match preview

Jack Draper reacts at the Indian Wells Masters on March 12, 2025© Iconsport

Conquering the clay is the next item on the Draper agenda, as the British number one has hoisted hard-court trophies aloft while also surging to glory on grass, doing so in the latter category against none other than Monday's opponent almost a year ago.

Dropping just two games against Giron in his Monte-Carlo opener proved to be a false dawn as Draper was taken out by clay aficionado Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the last 16, but the Indian Wells champion put that reverse behind him when faced with a Griekspoor-sized test.

Squaring up to the Dutchman on Saturday, Draper strolled to a 6-3 6-4 win with 75 minutes on the board, thus reaching the third round of the Madrid Open for the first time following second-round eliminations in both 2024 and 2022.

It was far from a flawless display from the British leftie, whose superpower often failed him as he landed just 51% of his first-serve attempts, but he won 85% of points when those strikes came off and limited Griekspoor to just the one break point opportunity, which he beat away.

With a declining Novak Djokovic bowing out over the weekend, Draper could now leapfrog the Serbian superstar in the ATP Live Rankings by reaching the semi-finals in the Spanish capital, and his record against players outside the Top 10 since October now reads an exceptional 19 wins and two defeats.

Matteo Berrettini in action at the Qatar Open on February 21, 2025© Imago

The above statistic does not spell optimism for Berrettini supporters, but one of those two losses for Draper did come against the aforementioned Davidovich Fokina as recently as Monte-Carlo, and his Italian foe has history on the Madrid clay.

On the only previous occasion that Berrettini competed in the main draw of this Masters 1000 competition, he finished as runner-up to Alexander Zverev in the 2021 edition, which preceded a lengthy absence from the tournament and the entire clay-court swing, having also sat out the 2022, 2023 and 2024 French Opens.

However, the injury-plagued Italian ended his four-year exile from Madrid with a battling triumph over Giron first up, crucially taking the second-set tie-breaker before running away with the third in a 6-7[3] 7-6[6] 6-1 victory, which took him over two-and-a-half hours to achieve.

A statistically dominant performance, Berrettini landed 12 aces, did not face a single break point, amassed 42 winners and committed just eight unforced errors against the American, who was the victim of the former Wimbledon finalist's 200th career win on the ATP Tour.

Only seven Italian men before him have ever racked up 200 match victories at the top level, and if last year's ATP Comeback Player of the Year can make that 201 against Draper, either Tommy Paul or Karen Khachanov will be standing in his way of the quarter-finals.


Tournament so far

Jack Draper:

First round: Bye
Second round: vs. Tallon Griekspoor 6-3 6-4

Matteo Berrettini:

First round: Bye
Second round: vs. Marcos Giron 6-7[3] 7-6[6] 6-1


Head To Head

Qatar Open (2025) - Quarter-finals: Draper wins 4-6 6-4 6-3
Stuttgart Open (2024) - Final: Draper wins 3-6 7-6[5] 6-4

Clashing for the third time on the ATP Tour, Berrettini will hope that the third time is the charm against Draper, as the British number one is 2-0 from their previous two head-to-heads at the top level.

The 2024 Stuttgart Open was the venue for Draper and Berrettini's inaugural battle, where the former came from a set down to triumph in the final, thus winning his first ATP Tour title in the process.

Draper repeated that trick the Doha quarter-finals earlier this year, again coming from behind to prevail in three sets against Berrettini, whose 16 aces that day were in vain.


SM words green background

We say: Draper to win in three sets

Draper is still trying to prove that he can be a force to be reckoned with on clay, whereas Berrettini knows what it takes to reach the Madrid showpiece, and Monday's battle has all the makings of a truly unpredictable affair.

The Indian Wells champion has had Berrettini's number over the past 12 months, though, and the latter's body may still be feeling the effects of his gruelling clash with Giron, so we have faith in Draper to maintain his 100% record in this head-to-head with another three-set triumph.

ID:571333:1false2false3false:QQ:: from db desktop :LenBod:collect7540:
Written by
Ben Knapton

Previews by email

Click here to get Sports Mole's daily email of previews and predictions for every major game!


Collect / Create New Data
Share this article now:
Jack Draper reacts at the US Open on September 6, 2024
Read Next:
Monte-Carlo misery: Draper double-faults his way out of Masters event
>
rhs 2.0
Today's games header


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
Argentina's Lionel Messi kisses the World Cup trophy after collecting the Golden Ball award on December 18, 2022Sign up for our FREE daily preview newsletter direct to your inbox!