The final round of the 2023 Six Nations kicks off at Murrayfield on Saturday as Scotland welcome Italy to Edinburgh.
Both teams have impressed at various stages throughout the tournament but still come into the final match with slightly underwhelming records and knowing that this weekend's result could ultimately determine whether their campaign has been a good one or a bad one.
Match preview
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Scotland may well look back on the 2023 Six Nations Championship as a missed opportunity to make history with a team that has been lauded as the best in generations of Scottish rugby.
It seems like a long time ago that Duhan van der Merwe sliced through the England defence en route to another famous win at Twickenham - a result which, unlike in previous years, was then followed up by victory over Wales in match two.
However, since those two maximum-point hauls, Gregor Townsend's men have lost back-to-back matches against France and Ireland respectively, ending their hopes of a first title since 1999, and a first-ever in the Six Nations era.
Losing to the two best teams in the world is neither shocking nor shameful for anyone, yet alone a Scottish side that has not seriously challenged the top of the Six Nations table this century, but their current crop are so good that there will still be a wistful sense of what might have been.
Never was that more true than last weekend against Ireland, who lost a string of key players to injury - including both of their hookers - yet still managed to power on in the second half for a 22-7 win at Murrayfield.
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Ireland's lead was just one point when Ronan Kelleher joined fellow hooker Dan Sheehan on the sidelines, forcing Cian Healy into the middle of the front row and Josh van der Flier to take on lineout throwing duties, yet Scotland did not put extra pressure on those in makeshift roles and ultimately failed to score a single point after their 16th-minute converted try put them in the lead.
It may be a long time before Scotland have a better chance to record a first-ever victory over the number one side in the world, although if the current crop can stick together then it should not be too long before they have another crack at a first Triple Crown since 1990.
For all of the positives from this year's tournament, Scotland know that defeat at home to Italy this weekend would leave them with a losing record and that the 2023 campaign will ultimately be looked back on as a failure.
However, they will be firm favourites to make it three Six Nations wins in a season for the fifth time in the last seven editions, and to finish in the top half for the first time since 2018.
Considering they had managed a winning record in just one of their 17 campaigns before that, it is important to recognise the progress Scotland have made in recent years, but the next jump to four wins and beyond has once again proved elusive this time around.
Victories also remain elusive for Italy, who like Scotland have produced plenty of encouraging performances, but who now find themselves staring down the barrel of an eighth successive Wooden Spoon, and an 18th from their 24 years in the Championship.
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There is still hope for the Azzurri to avoid that fate, but defeat to Wales last time out means that they would need to beat Scotland in this game and then hope that Wales lose to France in order to leapfrog Warren Gatland's side back into the heady heights of fourth.
With Scotland missing key players and France needing a big win to stand any chance of winning the title, that combination of results cannot be ruled out, but realistically last weekend's home match against Wales seemed like Italy's best chance to pick up a rare victory.
Both teams had lost all of their matches going into that one, while Italy had home advantage and had beaten Wales in Cardiff the previous year, but a sluggish start from the hosts in Rome enabled Wales to build a lead which they rarely looked in danger of surrendering en route to a much-needed 29-17 triumph.
The final scoreline did not tell the full story of the match, with Italy carrying for 795 metres to Wales' 479 and making a tournament-high 11 line breaks compared with just four for Wales - the most line breaks Italy have ever made against a Tier 1 nation since that data is available from 2010.
Once again, then, there were underlying causes for optimism, but that was also true in the defeats to France, England and Ireland, and sooner or later Italy will need to start turning their promise into points, as the wider picture still looks bleak.
Italy have now lost 40 of their last 41 Six Nations matches and, although the exception in that run came away from home on the final day of last year's Championship, it would take a fairly major shock for them to repeat that feat at Murrayfield on Saturday.
Scotland Six Nations form:
- W
- W
- L
- L
Italy Six Nations form:
- L
- L
- L
- L
Team News
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Scotland will have to make do without their two main star men for this match, with Finn Russell and new centurion Stuart Hogg picking up injuries against Ireland.
Blair Kinghorn comes back into the fold in place of Russell at 10, while Ollie Smith replaces Hogg at full-back in two of four changes made by Townsend.
The other two of those changes come in the pack, including one enforced one with Richie Gray also suffering an injury in the bruising encounter last weekend.
Gray is replaced in the second row by Sam Skinner, while Hamish Watson is back at openside flanker as Matt Fagerson drops to the bench and Jamie Ritchie moves back across to the blindside.
Outside centre Huw Jones is the leading try-scorer in this tournament following his fourth of the campaign against Ireland.
There could be a Scotland debut from the bench for fly-half Ben Healy, while Rory Sutherland, Cameron Redpath and Ewan Ashman could all make their first appearances of the 2023 Six Nations.
Italy have also made four changes to their starting XV, with head coach Kieran Crowley handing a debut to Simone Gesi on the left wing.
Gesi comes in for Edoardo Padovani, with Pierre Bruno switching from left wing to right, while Alessandro Fusco comes in for Stephen Varney at scrum-half.
In the pack, Edoardo Iachizzi and Marco Riccioni come back into the starting side, while replacement hooker Marco Manfredi could also be set for his Italy debut.
Scotland starting lineup: 15. Ollie Smith, 14. Kyle Steyn, 13. Huw Jones, 12. Sione Tuipulotu, 11. Duhan van der Merwe, 10. Blair Kinghorn, 9. Ben White; 1. Pierre Schoeman, 2. George Turner, 3. Zander Fagerson, 4. Sam Skinner, 5. Jonny Gray, 6. Jamie Ritchie, 7. Hamish Watson, 8. Jack Dempsey
Replacements: 16. Ewan Ashman, 17. Rory Sutherland, 18. WP Nel, 19. Scott Cummings, 20. Matt Fagerson, 21. Ali Price, 22. Ben Healy, 23. Cameron Redpath
Italy starting lineup: 15. Tommaso Allan, 14. Pierre Bruno, 13. Juan Ignacio Brex, 12. Tommaso Menoncello, 11. Simone Gesi, 10. Paolo Garbisi, 9. Alessandro Fusco; 1. Danilo Fischetti, 2. Giacomo Nicotera, 3. Marco Riccioni, 4. Edoardo Iachizzi, 5. Federico Ruzza, 6. Sebastian Negri, 7, Michele Lamaro, 8. Lorenzo Cannone
Replacements: 16. Marco Manfredi, 17. Federico Zani, 18. Pietro Ceccarelli, 19. Niccolo Cannone, 20. Giovanni Pettinelli, 21. Manuel Zuliani, 22. Alessandro Garbisi, 23. Luca Morisi
Head To Head
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For much of the Six Nations era this has been the battle of the bottom two, as evidenced by the fact that Italy have beaten Scotland seven times in this competition - more wins than they have enjoyed against every other team in the tournament combined.
However, Scotland's improvement in recent years is reflected in their ongoing run of seven straight victories in this fixture - their best-ever streak against any nation in the Championship.
In all competitions, Scotland's winning run against Italy stretches to 10 games, since the Azzurri recorded a 22-19 win at Murrayfield in 2015.
Overall, the two nations have faced off 34 times, with Scotland winning 26 of those to Italy's eight, including 14 of their 16 home matches.
We say: Scotland 31-21 Italy
Despite Italy having a poor recent record against Scotland, they have still managed to score three or more tries in three of the last five meetings, so we could be in for an entertaining start to Six Nations Super Saturday.
Scotland are missing their two best players and so will be relieved that they only have to cope without Russell and Hogg in the easiest match on paper in the tournament, although their absence does raise the chance of an upset.
Even so, we expect the hosts to end a largely positive tournament on a high and to secure a top-three finish in the process, while consigning Italy to yet another Wooden Spoon.
Barney Corkhill
