Preview:Wales vs. New Zealand - prediction, team news, lineups

Wales will be searching for their first victory since 1953 when they clash with New Zealand at the Principality Stadium in the Quilter Nations Series on Saturday, November 22. 

This year marks 120 years since this rugby rivalry started, and with opposing fortunes from last weekend, it is destined to be another fiery battle. 

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Match preview

The Steve Tandy era finally registered its first victory for Wales with a hard-fought 24-23 win against Japan last week. 

Wales can count themselves lucky, as they were trailing 23-21 when Jarrod Evans slotted in an 83rd-minute penalty to secure only their second triumph in 21 test matches. 

However, after playing the second half virtually with 14 men, the Welsh fans would take that one-point victory, and they would settle for the same when the All Blacks come to town this Saturday. 

The Red Dragons will rely on their goal-kicking accuracy, as their 86% is better than the opposition’s 73%, so if there is a chance that the hosts win this test, it will likely come from the kicking tee. 

The home side were excellent in parts against the Brave Blossoms last week, hitting a tackle success rate of 87.91%, while beating 31 defenders - their second 30+ game this year.

Now that Wales’ 10-game losing streak at home has been banished, the hosts will seek their first back-to-back pair of wins since 2021-22. 

New Zealand’s hopes of another Grand Slam were dashed by England last week, as was predicted. 

The All Blacks are vulnerable at the moment, having lost three of their last eight test matches, including their first against the Red Roses in 13 years. 

Coach Scott Robertson’s dream of a clean sweep in Europe came crumbling down thanks to a second-half collapse from his side after leading 12-11 in the first period last week. 

The visitors rarely lose two games on their European tour, and with 33 straight test wins against the hosts, this fixture will be welcomed by the travelling party. 

New Zealand’s last dozen meetings with Wales ended in victory by an average of 24 points, and with the All Blacks wounded from last weekend, another win of that magnitude is expected. 

Wales competition form:

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Wales form (all competitions): 

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New Zealand competition form:

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New Zealand form (all competitions): 

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Team News

Josh Adams’s red card last week means he is suspended for this one, so Tom Rogers returns to the Welsh wing. 

There is also a debut for Ospreys flanker Harri Deaves, who wins his first cap in a team that sees five changes from the one that beat Japan last weekend. 

Welsh coach Tandy speaking to the media about Deaves said, “It’s an amazing opportunity for Harri and we can’t wait to see him go on Saturday.” 

Robertson has decided to overhaul his starting XV for their final end-of-year test, with no fewer than 12 changes from the team that ran out against England. 

Only Scott Barrett, Simon Parker and Caleb Clarke keep their same jerseys, while Will Jordan and Wallace Sititi will start from different positions this weekend. 

The latter replaces Peter Lakai, who has a calf issue, while Fabian Holland has recovered from an illness that sidelined him last week, which means he will slot into the second row. 

Tevita Mafileo (rib), Luke Jacobson (concussion), Samipeni Finau (family illness) and Jordie Barrett (high ankle) are all unavailable for selection. 

Wales starting lineup:

15 Blair Murray, 14 Louis Rees-Zammit, 13 Max Llewellyn, 12 Joe Hawkins, 11 Tom Rogers, 10 Dan Edwards, 9 Tomos Williams, 8 Aaron Wainwright, 7 Harri Deaves, 6 Alex Mann, 5 Dafydd Jenkins, 4 Adam Beard, 3 Keiron Assiratti, 2 Dewi Lake (captain), 1 Rhys Carre

Replacements:

16 Brodie Coghlan, 17 Gareth Thomas, 18 Archie Griffin, 19 Freddie Thomas, 20 Taine Plumtree, 21 Kieran Hardy, 22 Jarrod Evans, 23 Nick Tompkins

New Zealand starting lineup:

15 Ruben Love, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Rieko Ioane, 12 Anton Lienert-Brown, 11 Caleb Clarke, 10 Damian McKenzie, 9 Cortez Ratima, 8 Wallace Sititi, 7 Du’Plessis Kirifi, 6 Simon Parker, 5 Fabian Holland, 4 Scott Barrett (captain), 3 Pasilio Tosi, 2 Samisoni Taukei’aho, 1 Tamaiti Williams

Replacements:

16 George Bell, 17 Fletcher Newell, 18 George Bower, 19 Josh Lord, 20 Christian Lio-Willie, 21 Finlay Christie, 22 Leicester Fainga’anuku, 23 Sevu Reece

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Head To Head

These sides have clashed 37 times before, with the All Blacks securing 34 wins to the Welsh's three victories. 

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We say: Wales 12-37 New Zealand

Despite changing the team up drastically, New Zealand have too much quality in their ranks, and after last week’s defeat, they will want to end their tour on a high with an emphatic victory to make it win number 35 against Wales.