Preview: Australia vs. New Zealand - prediction, team news, lineups

In what is the most competitive Rugby Championship ever, both Australia and New Zealand will be eyeing the crown when they meet in Perth on October 4. 

It all rests on a knife’s edge, as the two Australasian sides aim to snatch the title away from South Africa, preventing the Springboks from going back-to-back for the first time in their history.

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Match preview

Australia have shown incredible promise in this edition of the Rugby Championship, beating the world champions on their turf, despite going down 22-5 at the halfway mark. 

That type of fight has become associated with the Wallabies in recent months, especially after they scored 33 unanswered points against the Springboks to win their opening game of the competition. 

Despite losing the British and Irish Lions tour 2-1, Australia showed great strength to snatch a victory in that third and final test, making it three defeats and three victories in their last six outings. 

Coach Joe Schmidt will be encouraging his troops for Saturday’s finale, pushing them to put themselves in line for lifting the coveted prize after a 10-year drought. 

However, that might be an easy thought, but the reality is that the Wallabies' last win against New Zealand came back in 2020, when they edged a two-pointer in Brisbane. 

Home advantage could play its part, considering that this game is the final one at home before the teams in the southern hemisphere depart for the north for their respective end-of-year schedules. 

A rare win for Australia on Saturday will not guarantee them the title, as the destiny of that honour rests solely in South Africa’s hands, but the hosts can put themselves in line if the Boks slip up, bearing in mind they must win by a bonus point and hope that Argentina can prevent the current champions from grabbing one themselves. 

It is the same scenario for New Zealand, who are right behind the world champions in the Rugby Championship standings and have a slightly easier path to wrestle back the trophy from the Boks. 

The All Blacks retained the Bledisloe Cup last weekend, with a thrilling first-half performance that saw them score three tries within the first 25 minutes, taking a 20-3 early lead. 

It was the comeback from the Aussies that had the home coach, Scott Robertson, on tenterhooks, after the visitors fought back to within two points of the lead with just 11 minutes to play. 

However, the hosts landed a converted try with five minutes to play and registered their third win of the campaign, which was much-needed after the hammering they were on the receiving end of at the hands of the Springboks two weeks ago. 

Robertson’s troops will be confident that they can go to their neighbours and get the points they need to put pressure on the current holders, especially since they have won on each of their previous four visits to the land down under.

The All Blacks will win the Rugby Championship if they win and South Africa loses, but if they win with a bonus point and the Boks prevail without one, the teams will be level on points, and it goes down to points difference, which New Zealand currently have -6 compared to the champions' +55. 

Australia Rugby Championship form:

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Australia form (all competitions): 

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New Zealand Rugby Championship form:

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New Zealand form (all competitions): 

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Team news

The biggest news for the home side is the retirement of Australia’s most-capped player, James Slipper, after the clash with New Zealand this weekend. 

The 36-year-old prop became the third player in rugby history to surpass 150 test caps last week, and his 151st will indeed be his last after Schmidt named him in his starting 15. 

Lock Will Skelton and scrum-half Jake Gordon are part of the five changes from last week’s team, with the latter making his first appearance since the British & Irish Lions series, after overcoming a hamstring strain. 

Tane Edmed will get another run at fly-half, despite his shaky performance in their defeat to Argentina in Sydney, while Filipo Daugunu replaces Corey Toole on the left wing. 

Tate McDermott’s injury last week means Ryan Lonergan keeps his place in the reserves, while Allan Alaalatoa replaces Taniela Tupou to make it an all-Brumbies front row. 

The All Blacks were also left decimated with injuries after last weekend’s rough encounter, with fly-half Beauden Barrett leaving the field in the first half through a shoulder injury that is likely to rule him out of the northern hemisphere tour. 

However, his brother Scott, who missed out last week, will be back to lead the All Blacks in the Rugby Championship final alongside a return for Leicester Fainga'anuku, who replaces the injured Caleb Clarke on the wing. 

Damian McKenzie grabs the number 10 jersey this week, while Quinn Tupaea slots in at outside centre in place of Billy Proctor. 

The damage from last week’s clash is so extensive that Robertson has had to call up Rieko Ioane, Ruben Love and props George Bower and Pasilio Tosi to fill up his bench.

Australia starting lineup:

15 Max Jorgensen, 14 Harry Potter, 13 Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii, 12 Len Ikitau, 11 Filipo Daugunu, 10 Tane Edmed, 9 Jake Gordon, 8 Harry Wilson (captain), 7 Fraser McReight, 6 Tom Hooper, 5 Will Skelton, 4 Nick Frost, 3 Allan Alaalatoa, 2 Billy Pollard, 1 James Slipper

Replacements: 16 Josh Nasser, 17 Tom Robertson, 18 Taniela Tupou, 19 Jeremy Williams, 20 Rob Valetini, 21 Ryan Lonergan, 22 James O’Connor, 23 Josh Flook

New Zealand starting lineup:

15 Will Jordan, 14 Leroy Carter, 13 Quinn Tupaea, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Leicester Fainga'anuku, 10 Damian McKenzie, 9 Cam Roigard, 8 Peter Lakai, 7 Ardie Savea, 6 Simon Parker, 5 Tupou Vaa'i, 4 Scott Barrett (captain), 3 Fletcher Newell, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Tamaiti Williams

Replacements:

16 Samisoni Taukei'aho, 17 George Bower, 18 Pasilio Tosi, 19 Patrick Tuipulotu, 20 Wallace Sititi, 21 Cortez Ratima, 22 Rieko Ioane, 23 Ruben Love

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Head to head

New Zealand are way in front in the overall head-to-head record with 140 wins to the Wallabies’ 51 from 199 meetings, giving the All Blacks a near 70% win percentage. 

That number is reflected in their recent head-to-head record in Australia, as the visitors boast seven wins across their last 10 meetings (L3). 

However, taking away the venue, the ABs were victorious in each of their last 10 clashes with the Aussies across all competitions. 

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We say: Australia 15-32 New Zealand

 

New Zealand’s dominance in this fixture is too great to ignore, and considering that there is potential silverware on the other side of this fixture, the All Blacks will certainly deliver the bonus-point victory they need.