Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa Women win with a probability of 40.22%. A win for Brighton & Hove Albion Women had a probability of 35% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa Women win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.35%) and 0-2 (6.28%). The likeliest Brighton & Hove Albion Women win was 2-1 (8.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.58%). The actual scoreline of 2-6 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Aston Villa Women would win this match.