Women's Champions League Gameweek 2
Oct 1, 2026 8.00pm
1
1
HT : 0 1
FT Etihad Stadium
  • Khadija Monifa Shaw 51' goal
  • goal Linda Lizeth Caicedo Alegría 29'

Manchester City Women vs Real Madrid Femenino - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Manchester City Women

All competitions
Women's Champions League
Last game
Sep 22, 2026 5.45pm
Bayern Munich 2 - 2 Man City

Real Madrid Femenino

All competitions
Women's Champions League
Last game
Sep 22, 2026 8.00pm
Real Madrid 1 - 1 PSG

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City Women win with a probability of 51.02%. A win for Real Madrid Femenino had a probability of 27.34% and a draw had a probability of 21.64%.

The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City Women win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.02%) and 2-0 (6.32%). The likeliest Real Madrid Femenino win was 1-2 (6.78%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.74%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood.

Result

Manchester City Women 51.02% ▲ (+0.08)
Draw 21.64%
Real Madrid Femenino 27.34% ▼ (-0.08)

Both Teams to Score: 

60.46% ▲ (+0.04)

Goals

Over 1.5 84.03% ▲ (+0.05)
Under 1.5 15.97% ▼ (-0.05)
Over 2.5 64.45% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 2.5 35.55% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 3.5 41.55% ▲ (+0.03)
Under 3.5 58.41% ▼ (-0.08)
Over 4.5 27.2% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 4.5 72.8% ▼ (-0.05)

First Half Winner

Manchester City Women 40%
Draw 32.25%
Real Madrid Femenino 27.75%

Team To Score First

Manchester City Women 56.99%
No Goal 3.92% ▼ (-0.02)
Real Madrid Femenino 39.09% ▲ (+0.02)

Corners

Over 8 60.58%
Equal 8 9.98%
Under 8 29.44%
Over 9 50.16%
Equal 9 10.42%
Under 9 39.42%
Over 10.5 40.09%
Under 10.5 59.91%

Manchester City Women Goals

Over 1.5 54.73% ▲ (+0.08)
Under 1.5 45.27% ▼ (-0.08)
Over 2.5 30.78% ▲ (+0.08)
Under 2.5 69.22% ▼ (-0.08)
Over 3.5 14.22% ▲ (+0.05)
Under 3.5 85.78% ▼ (-0.04)

Real Madrid Femenino Goals

Over 0.5 63.68% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 0.5 36.32% ▲ (+0.04)
Over 1.5 34.25% ▼ (-0.04)
Under 1.5 65.75% ▲ (+0.04)
Over 2.5 14.15% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 2.5 85.85% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 3.5 4.88% ▼ (-0.01)
Under 3.5 95.12% ▲ (+0.02)

Score analysis

Manchester City Women 51.03%
Draw 21.63%
Real Madrid Femenino 27.34%
Manchester City Women
2-1 @ 9.05%
1-0 @ 7.02%
2-0 @ 6.32% ▲ (+0.02)
3-1 @ 5.61% ▲ (+0.02)
3-0 @ 5.22% ▲ (+0.01)
3-2 @ 3.97% ▲ (+0.02)
Other @ 13.84% ▲ (+0.04)
Total : 51.03%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.74%
2-2 @ 5.83%
0-0 @ 3.92% ▼ (-0.02)
3-3 @ 1.76%
Other @ 0.38%
Total : 21.63%
Real Madrid Femenino
1-2 @ 6.78% ▼ (-0.01)
0-1 @ 5.03% ▼ (-0.01)
0-2 @ 3.52% ▼ (-0.01)
1-3 @ 2.91% ▼ (-0.01)
2-3 @ 2.75%
0-3 @ 1.85%
Other @ 4.5% ▼ (-0.01)
Total : 27.34%