Werder Bremen host Stuttgart in the Bundesliga on Sunday, with both sides looking to move into the top half of the table with a victory.
The two teams have identical records after the opening nine matches - two wins, five draws and two losses - with the visitors ahead of their forthcoming opponents on goal difference.
Match preview
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Having narrowly survived relegation in a playoff against Heidenheim last season, it has been a very respectable start to the campaign for Bremen.
Having drawn their previous five matches 1-1, Florian Kohfeldt's side would have become the first team in Bundesliga history to have six consecutive matches finish with the same scoreline had their trip to Wolfsburg ended 1-1.
However, Bremen were instead defeated for the first time since the opening day of the season in a hugely entertaining 5-3 win for Wolfsburg. Leonardo Bittencourt had given Bremen the lead in the early exchanges, before Ridle Baku and John Brooks powered the hosts in front. Substitute Kevin Mohwald pulled the visitors level with a superb looping header, before Wout Weghorst restored Die Wolfe's lead heading into the break.
Brooks went from hero to zero when turning Milot Rashica's cross inside his own post, before Weghorst put Wolfsburg back ahead once more and Mohwald saw red, with Bartosz Bialek's first ever Bundesliga goal sealing the three points. Kohfeldt will be hoping for a much more assured defensive performance against a Stuttgart side who can very be dangerous, while retaining the attacking fluency his side displayed in Wolfsburg.
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Like Bremen, Stuttgart had also remained unbeaten since the opening day heading into their home fixture with champions Bayern Munich, which was an extremely impressive feat for a side who were only promoted last season.
When Tanguy Coulibaly fired the hosts into the lead after a rare Manuel Neuer mistake, it looked like that record might continue against all the odds. However, Kingsley Coman and Robert Lewandowski had other ideas, firing Hansi Flick's side into the lead with fine solo efforts heading into the break.
Pellegrino Matarazzo's side rallied in the second half, with substitute Sasa Kalajdzic denied a first goal since matchday three by a fine Neuer save. Douglas Costa scored his first goal since returning to Bavaria in the last transfer window by taking a leaf out of Coman's book, cutting in from the flank and firing inside Gregor Kobel's near post to secure the three points in a hard-fought 3-1 victory.
Matarazzo will take confidence from the performance his side displayed against one of the strongest sides in Europe, fully believing his side can kickstart another unbeaten run at Bremen on Sunday.
Werder Bremen Bundesliga form: DDDDDL
Stuttgart Bundesliga form: WDDDDL
Team News
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Bremen could be without Joshua Sargent and Rashica with ankle and hamstring issues respectively, while top goalscorer Niclas Fullkrug definitely remains unavailable with the calf injury he sustained against Hoffenheim in October.
Should the trio of forwards be unavailable, this would leave Kohfeldt's side incredibly short in attack. David Selke may make his second start of the season alongside Bittencourt and Yuya Osako in the front three.
Mohwald is suspended after picking up a red card in the defeat to Wolfsburg, meaning that Jean-Manuel Mbom may receive a second chance having been substituted during a torrid first half.
Stuttgart certainly have their own injury problems, with Momo Cisse (muscle), Clinton Mola (fitness), Hamadi Al Ghaddioui (groin), Daniel Didavi (hip), Erik Thommy (elbow), Maxime Awoudja (Achilles) and star striker Nicolas Gonzalez (ligament) all out for the trip to Bremen.
Matarazzo opted for the pace of Coulibaly in attack in Gonzalez's absence against Bayern, but may turn to Kalajdzic for a more physical presence this weekend with Bremen's defence likely to sit much deeper.
Werder Bremen possible starting lineup:
Pavlenka; Gebre Selassie, Toprak, Friedl; Mbom, Eggestein, Gross, Augustinsson; Osaka, Bittencourt; Selke
Stuttgart possible starting lineup:
Kobel; Mavropanos, Anton, Kempf; Wamangituka, Mangala, Endo, Sosa; Coulibaly, Castro; Kalajdzic
We say: Werder Bremen 1-1 Stuttgart
With these two sides drawing nine of their last 12 league matches combined, we can envisage a score draw here in what could be a fairly cagey encounter with both sides suffering from plenty of injuries.
The visitors are a little easier on the eye, though, and if Kalajdzic can rediscover his goalscoring boots, they could have the edge.
Top betting tip
Brett Curtis
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stuttgart win with a probability of 47.2%. A win for Werder Bremen had a probability of 29.43% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stuttgart win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.97%) and 0-2 (6.98%). The likeliest Werder Bremen win was 2-1 (7.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Stuttgart in this match.
