Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Haverfordwest County win with a probability of 44.24%. A win for Barry Town United had a probability of 30.78% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Haverfordwest County win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.13%) and 2-0 (7.3%). The likeliest Barry Town United win was 0-1 (7.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.79%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Haverfordwest County would win this match.