The Vancouver Whitecaps have an opportunity to dig themselves out of the Major League Soccer basement when they host the San Jose Earthquakes on Saturday at BC Place Stadium.
A 90th-minute goal gave the Caps their second victory of the year last Sunday, while San Jose have points in three of their previous four domestics fixtures.
Match preview
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For the first time in quite a while, it was all smiles for Vanni Sartini and the Whitecaps last week as they put an end to a three-game losing streak in dramatic fashion, defeating Toronto 1-0.
Given how poor the campaign has been for the only Canadian club to make the postseason a year ago, Vancouver will not care that their previous victory may have been slightly fortunate as a seemingly valid goal from Jayden Nelson was ruled out because of a foul.
Whether it was a lucky break or not, this team showed a lot more stability and character last week than we have seen in any encounter this season, as their wingers did well to stretch the field while also providing some extra help for the back three.
When their midfielders press higher up the pitch, they can be a dangerous team, particularly on the counter, which led to their winning goal against the Reds.
At the moment, Vancouver are tied with the Chicago Fire for the fewest goals scored in this regular season (seven), though they have only been shut out in one of their last nine matches played at BC Place dating back to 2021.
So far in 2022, the Caps' driving wing-backs have provided them with a ton of width, though that finishing product has not always been there.
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Over in Silicon Valley, a new interim boss has changed the fortunes of the long-suffering San Jose Earthquakes, who have picked up seven points in their previous four MLS fixtures under Alex Covelo.
There is still a long way to go to bring this franchise that have finished no higher than eighth in the Western Conference since 2017, back to respectability, but their recent performances are encouraging, including at the U.S. Open Cup where they knocked out the Seattle Sounders this week in a nervy penalty shootout.
In 2021, the Goonies collected just two clean sheets at home, and in four matches at the helm, their Spanish coach has guided them to a pair of shutout wins at PayPal Park in all competitions, beating the Colorado Rapids 1-0 last weekend.
This season, scoring goals away from home has been an issue for them, failing to tally in three of their four road fixtures, having been outscored 10-3.
San Jose have only won two MLS contests at BC Place, with their last victory coming back in 2019 when the now-retired Chris Wondolowski had a goal and an assist in a 3-1 win.
The Quakes have not conceded a first-half tally in consecutive domestic fixtures, which is a step in the right direction for a team that allowed a goal in the opening 45 minutes in each of their first seven matches played this year under Matias Almeyda.
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Team News
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Tosaint Ricketts scored his first goal of the regular season for the Whitecaps and his first in Vancouver, thanks to some great work down the flank from Ryan Gauld, who picked out Lucas Cavallini on the wing before the Caps number nine found Ricketts, a fellow Canadian, all-alone for a tap-in.
In the second half last week, Thomas Hasal had to be replaced by Cody Cropper after the Caps goalkeeper injured his hand when he spilled a shot from Alejandro Pozuelo, who he saved from the penalty spot in the first half.
Caio Alexandre remains on the sidelines (left foot, fifth Metatarsal surgery), and Tristan Blackmon has a right knee sprain.
Cristian Gutierrez is out due to tightness in his left calf, and Leonard Owusu will not be available after suffering a right foot contusion.
Brian White scored a hat-trick for Vancouver in their previous home fixture against the Quakes last season, the only three goals of that match, while the club is still trying to sort out the visa issues of their new signing Andres Cubas.
Russell Teibert and Ryan Raposo scored first-half goals to give the Whitecaps a 2-0 win over Valour FC at the Canadian Championship on Wednesday.
Nathan notched his first of the season for San Jose in their victory against the Rapids, his third career strike in MLS, while Cristian Espinoza assisted on the only goal of the match.
Espinoza is now just one assist shy of Eddie Lewis for fifth all-time in franchise history, as he currently sits at 34 in his Goonies career.
Gilbert Fuentes is out for personal reasons, Judson has a left knee injury, and Chofis remains sidelined due to a problem with his left upper thigh.
In their previous domestic encounter, JT Marcinkowski recorded his first clean sheet of the season, making five saves against the Burgundy Boys, the 11th shutout of his MLS career.
His backup Matt Bersano was heroic in midweek, stopping his counterpart for the Sounders Stefan Cleveland from 12 yards away before stepping up himself and scoring the game winner from the spot to send the Quakes into the Round of 16 of the U.S. Open Cup, winning 10-9 in the shootout after the match ended 2-2.
There were two changes made to the starting 11 in San Jose last Saturday from the team who started in their 3-0 defeat at New York City FC, as Nathan replaced Tanner Beason on defence and Cade Cowell played in midfield rather than Eric Remedi.
Vancouver Whitecaps possible starting lineup:
Cropper; Godoy, Veselinovic, Nerwinski; Brown, Teibert, Berhalter, Dajome; Gauld; Cavallini, White
San Jose Earthquakes possible starting lineup:
Marcinkowski; Marie, Nathan, Calvo, Lopez; Remedi; Espinoza, Gregus, Kikanovic, Cowell; Ebobisse
We say: Vancouver Whitecaps 3-2 San Jose Earthquakes
The Caps may have caught a break with that disallowed goal a week ago, but that was perhaps their best performance of the season as they looked more dangerous going forward and created some effective pressing and counterattacks.
Things have looked a lot better in San Jose, but this team still seem to struggle on the road and are often caught out of position defensively, while appearing overwhelmed when marching into foreign territory.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vancouver Whitecaps win with a probability of 47.78%. A win for San Jose Earthquakes had a probability of 26.9% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vancouver Whitecaps win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.34%) and 2-0 (8.5%). The likeliest San Jose Earthquakes win was 0-1 (7.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.03%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1% likelihood.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
