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La Liga | Gameweek 17
Dec 11, 2021 at 5.30pm UK
Mestalla
Elche

Valencia
2 - 1
Elche

Guedes (23'), Piccini (86')
Gomez (34'), Wass (48'), Foulquier (90+2')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Boye (75')
Morente (41'), Roco (90+2')

Preview: Valencia vs. Elche - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's La Liga clash between Valencia and Elche, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Valencia will be looking to stretch their unbeaten run in La Liga to six matches when they welcome Elche to Mestalla on Saturday evening.

Los Che will enter the contest off the back of a 2-1 victory over Celta Vigo last weekend, while Elche recorded a 3-1 win over Cadiz to move into 16th position in the table.


Match preview

Valencia's Jose Gaya celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on October 17, 2021© Reuters

Valencia have won five, drawn seven and lost four of their 16 La Liga matches this season to collect 22 points, which has left them eighth in the table, just a point behind seventh-placed Barcelona.

Los Che, as mentioned, are on a five-game unbeaten run in Spain's top flight, and they will enter this weekend's contest off the back of a 2-1 victory at Celta, with Hugo Duro and Maxi Gomez on the scoresheet in Vigo.

Jose Bordalas's side were also victorious in the Copa del Rey on December 2, comfortably progressing to the second round of the competition courtesy of a 3-0 success at Utrillas.

Valencia finished 13th in La Liga last season, which proved to be their worst campaign since claiming 14th in 1987-88, but their form in the early stages of this campaign has been encouraging.

Los Che have won four of their last five La Liga meetings with Elche, including a 1-0 victory in the corresponding match during the 2020-21 campaign, with Daniel Wass scoring the only goal of the game.

Elche's Gonzalo Verdu in action with Atletico Madrid's Thomas Lemar on August 22, 2021© Reuters

Elche, meanwhile, will enter this weekend's contest off the back of a 3-1 home success over Cadiz, with Fidel, Tete Morente and Josan Fernandez on the scoresheet.

Francisco's side also triumphed in the Copa del Rey on December 2, securing their spot in the second round of the competition courtesy of a 2-0 victory over Leioa.

Elche have won three, drawn six and lost seven of their 16 league matches this season to collect 15 points, which has left them in 16th position in the table, just three points outside of the relegation zone.

Los Franjiverdes finished 17th in La Liga last season, just two points clear of the relegation zone, so it is not a surprise to see them towards the bottom of the division at this stage.

Francisco has made an impressive start as head coach, though, recording back-to-back wins, and Elche will believe that they are capable of triumphing at Mestalla on Saturday.

Valencia La Liga form:
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • D
  • D
  • W

Valencia form (all competitions):
  • W
  • D
  • D
  • D
  • W
  • W

Elche La Liga form:
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • D
  • W

Elche form (all competitions):
  • L
  • D
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • W



Team News

Valencia's Hugo Duro celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on September 19, 2021© Reuters

Valencia will again be without the services of Gabriel Paulista through injury, while Thierry Correia remains a fitness doubt for Los Che.

The home side will also be without Jose Gaya through suspension, but Mouctar Diakhaby and Dimitri Foulquier are available following suspensions of their own, and the pair are expected to start.

Duro and Helder Costa are again likely to feature alongside Maxi Gomez in the final third, but Wass could drop out, with Hugo Guillamon moving forward into midfield.

As for Elche, Pedro Bigas, Javier Pastore and Josema will need to undergo late fitness tests to determine whether they will be available for this weekend's contest.

Head coach Francisco will have been impressed with what he saw against Cadiz, so it would not be a surprise to see the same XI take to the field against Valencia.

Lucas Perez and Lucas Boye should continue as the front two in a 4-4-2 formation, with Morente and Fidel operating in the wide areas on Saturday evening.

Valencia possible starting lineup:
Cillessen; Foulquier, Diakhaby, Alderete, Lato; Soler, Guillamon, Racic, Duro; Gomez, Costa

Elche possible starting lineup:
Badia; Palacios, Gonzalez, Roco, Mojica; Morente, Mascarell, Marcone, Fidel; Perez, Boye


SM words green background

We say: Valencia 2-1 Elche

Elche are more than capable of picking up a positive result here, and Valencia have drawn three of their last four league matches, but we fancy Los Che to collect all three points on Saturday, with Bordalas's side moving above Barcelona if they manage to win this weekend.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 1.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 1.5:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Valencia win with a probability of 48.84%. A draw had a probability of 26.8% and a win for Elche had a probability of 24.37%.

The most likely scoreline for a Valencia win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.69%) and 2-1 (9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.53%), while for a Elche win it was 0-1 (8.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Valencia in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Valencia.


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Game History

How you voted: Valencia vs Elche

Valencia
82.0%
Draw
11.5%
Elche
6.6%
61
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Valencia's Jose Gaya celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates on October 17, 2021
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1Real Madrid33266171224984
2Barcelona32217464372770
3GironaGirona32215667402768
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13Las PalmasLas Palmas32107153039-937
14AlavesAlaves3298152838-1035
15Rayo Vallecano32713122739-1234
16Celta Vigo32710153747-1031
17Mallorca32613132638-1231
18CadizCadiz32413152245-2325
19Granada3239203361-2818
20Almeria32111203164-3314


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