A place in the quarter-finals of the Under-20 World Cup is up for grabs when Uzbekistan Under-20s and Israel Under-20s go head-to-head in Tuesday's last-16 affair at the Malvinas Argentinas Stadium.
Ravshan Khaydarov's side placed second in Group A to seal a direct route into the knockout rounds, while Israel also finished runners-up in their section, finishing behind Colombia in Group C.
Match preview
© Reuters
Qualifying for the Under-20 World Cup by virtue of their maiden triumph at the Under-20 Asian Cup - defeating Iraq 1-0 in March's final and conceding just once in the process - Uzbekistan have found the step-up to international level challenging to say the least.
Taking just one point from their opening two Group A games versus Argentina and New Zealand, Uzbekistan needed to do the business against whipping boys Guatemala and pray for Argentina to do them a favour in their battle with New Zealand to assure themselves of a route into the last 16 during the final round of group matches.
Khaydarov's team did what was required of them, defeating Guatemala 2-0 thanks to a pair of goals from Shakhzod Nematzhonov inside the opening 20 minutes, and Argentina's 5-0 demolition of New Zealand saw Uzbekistan finish second by the skin of their teeth on goal difference.
The White Wolves' four-point tally would have been enough to see them through as one of the four best-performing third-placed teams too, but such a ranking could have led to a much more challenging affair in their opening knockout game as Uzbekistan endeavour to reach the quarter-finals for the third time; last-eight eliminations in 2013 and 2015 still represent their best runs at the Under-20 World Cup.
Similarly, tournament debutants Israel - who qualified via their second-placed finish at the Under-19 Euros - were given a true baptism of fire at the Under-20 World Cup in Group C, suffering a 2-1 loss to Colombia and drawing 1-1 with Senegal in their opening two games to leave them on the brink of an early exit.
With Japan also entering Saturday's final group contest on just three points, it was all to play for on the Estadio Malvinas Argentinas turf, and a bad-tempered affair ensued, with no fewer than seven yellow cards and a sending-off in that pivotal winner-takes-all contest.
Israel were the ones to end the game with 10 men, and Ofir Haim's charges were seemingly consigned to their fate as they entered the final 15 minutes 1-0 down to Isa Sakamoto's strike, but Roy Navi restored parity before a last-gasp injury time strike from Omer Senior propelled Israel into the knockout rounds, forcing Japan to accept third place as they wait to learn their fate.
Both scoring and conceding in each of their three group games, Israel have been solid if yet unspectacular during their tournament inauguration and will be facing Uzbekistan for the first time at Under-20 level on Tuesday, where the victors could potentially be rewarded with a quarter-final showdown versus Brazil.
- L
- D
- W
- W
- W
- W
- L
- D
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Uzbekistan came through their final group game with Guatemala largely unscathed, but captain Umarali Rakhmonaliev - one of two players plying their trade outside of their home nation - is now suspended for an accumulation of yellow cards.
The Rubin Kazan midfielder's spot could be filled by Nodir Abdurazzakov, while Abbosbek Fayzullaev may also be fearing for his place in the attack after only lasting 45 minutes last time out; Pulatkhuzha Kholdorkhonov is on standby.
Israel also have a player on the naughty step in the form of midfielder Ran Binyamin, who came off the bench against Japan in the 61st minute, picked up a booking in the 65th minute and was given his marching orders for a second yellow card offence in the 68th during a disastrous cameo.
Binyamin would certainly not have been considered for a starting role here in the wake of his seven-minute nightmare, but El Yam Kancepolsky cannot breathe easy, as matchday three goalscorer Navi will challenge him for a midfield start alongside captain Ilay Madmon.
Israel striker Dor Turgeman was reportedly taken off with an injury just a few minutes after setting up Senior's winner against Japan, which might open the door for the latter to start in a central role.
Uzbekistan Under-20s possible starting lineup:
Kenzhaev; Urozov, Ashurov, Khusanov; Abdurakhmatov, Askarov, Esanov, Makhamadzhonov; Abdurazzakov, Fayzullaev; Nematzhonov
Israel Under-20s possible starting lineup:
Tzarfati; Feingold, Lemkin, Israelov, Revivo; Madmon, Navi; Salman, Abed, Lugassy; Turgeman
We say: Uzbekistan Under-20s 1-1 Israel Under-20s (a.e.t, Israel to win on penalties)
There was barely anything to separate Uzbekistan and Israel during their average group-stage runs, with both sides securing four points and conceding four goals, and a closely-fought last-16 affair should transpire on Tuesday night.
It is nigh-on impossible to pick a clear winner over 90 or 120 minutes, but with Israel's prospects brimming with big-game experience from their run to the Under-19 Euros final last year, Haim's side can hold their nerve from 12 yards to advance to the quarters and send Uzbekistan packing.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uzbekistan Under-20s win with a probability of 63.58%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Israel Under-20s had a probability of 14.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Uzbekistan Under-20s win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.1%) and 2-1 (9.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.35%), while for a Israel Under-20s win it was 0-1 (5.71%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood.
Ben Knapton
