Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Deportivo Maldonado win with a probability of 43.51%. A draw had a probability of 29.1% and a win for La Luz had a probability of 27.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Deportivo Maldonado win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.88%) and 2-1 (8.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.17%), while for a La Luz win it was 0-1 (10.69%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Deportivo Maldonado in this match.