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Uruguay national football team
World Cup Qualifying - South America | Group Stage
Feb 1, 2022 at 11pm UK
 
Venezuela national football team

Uruguay
4 - 1
Venezuela

Bentancur (1'), De Arrascaeta (23'), Cavani (45+1'), Suarez (53' pen.)
Olivera (66')
FT(HT: 3-0)
Martinez (65')
Gonzalez (29'), Chancellor (41'), Soteldo (52'), Rondon (80'), Murillo (84'), Rincon (90')

Preview: Uruguay vs. Venezuela - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's World Cup Qualifying - South America clash between Uruguay and Venezuela, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Uruguay and Venezuela will both aim to build on recent wins in World Cup 2022 CONMEBOL Qualifying during Tuesday's battle at the Estadio Centenario.

Diego Alonso's men saw off Paraguay 1-0 to keep their hopes of automatic qualification alive, while their visitors eased to a 4-1 success over Bolivia last time out.


Match preview

Uruguay coach Diego Alonso reacts on January 27, 2022© Reuters

Finally managing to snap a dismal winless period that ultimately marked the end of Oscar Tabarez's tenure in the dugout, Uruguay's stint under the tutelage of Alonso began in ideal fashion with a precious three points against Paraguay.

Luis Suarez's 66th goal for the national team was all that separated the two sides on the day as Uruguay ended their five-game winless streak in World Cup Qualifying - including an abysmal period of four successive defeats - but their top-four destiny is out of their own hands.

Uruguay have slipped to fifth in the standings after Tabarez's final few defeats - which would be good enough for a spot in the inter-confederation playoffs - but only one point separates them from Peru in the fourth and final automatic qualification spot.

Not since 2006 have the two-time World Cup winners failed to qualify for the finals tournament - making it out of the group stage in all three subsequent editions - but Alonso will be determined to avoid doing it the hard way after getting off to a fast start on the touchline.

Suarez's winner against Paraguay marks only the second goal Uruguay have scored in their last six Qualifying games - averaging one per game with 15 strikes from 15 matches so far - and Venezuela had no such trouble in the ruthlessness department last time out.

Venezuela coach Jose Pekerman on January 28, 2022© Reuters

The less said about the start to his Everton career the better, but Salomon Rondon was a different beast in the Venezuela shirt versus Bolivia on Friday, scoring three of his side's four goals to restore a bit of parity in an otherwise doomed qualification period.

Rondon's first-half brace was cancelled out by Bruno Miranda in the first half as Bolivia threatened a comeback in the second 45, but a red card for Justiniano killed any fleeting hopes of a turnaround as Rondon and Darwin Machis made sure of the result.

As eye-catching as that performance was, only a third win from 15 matches in Qualifying means that rock-bottom Venezuela now cannot earn an automatic qualification for Qatar and will need a miracle to even climb up to fifth and make the playoffs.

The world's 59th-ranked nation therefore seem consigned to another year without a finals appearance and are still waiting for their first-ever qualification to the World Cup, with such hopes likely to be dashed entirely this week as Jose Pekerman's men have played seven and lost seven away from home in the section so far.

Venezuela did manage to hold Uruguay to a goalless stalemate during their battle back in June - the visitors' only draw of Qualifying so far - but Alonso's side will endeavour to prove why five places and nine points separate the two sides in the section this week.

Uruguay World Cup Qualifying - South America form:
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • W

Venezuela World Cup Qualifying - South America form:
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • W



Team News

 Manchester United's Edinson Cavani during the warm up, January 3, 2022© Reuters

Uruguay will be forced into a midfield alteration with Matias Vecino now suspended for an accumulation of yellow cards, so Rodrigo Bentancur could be joined in the engine room by Mauro Arambarri.

Lucas Torreira would have been a candidate to start but is recovering from COVID-19 alongside Diego Rossi, but Alonso has no fresh injury concerns to report from the win over Paraguay.

Facundo Pellistri will expect to earn another start after earning plaudits for his debut performance in that triumph, while Manchester United teammate Edinson Cavani is an option for change up top if fresh legs are required.

As for Venezuela, substitute Cristian Casseres was cautioned within nine minutes of coming on against Bolivia - his second of Qualifying - and he will take his place on the naughty step for this one.

The 22-year-old was unlikely to force his way into the starting lineup either way, with Pekerman surely seeing no reason to fix what is not broken after putting four past Bolivia.

Sampdoria's Tomas Rincon is therefore set to earn his 115th cap for the national side as he mans the engine room, while Rondon will surely keep Josef Martinez out of the team too.

Uruguay possible starting lineup:
Rochet; Araujo, Godin, Gimenez, Olivera; Pellistri, Bentancur, Arambarri, Valverde; Nunez, Suarez

Venezuela possible starting lineup:
Farinez; Hernandez, Ferraresi, Chancellor, Gonzalez; Martinez, Rincon; Machis, Otero, Soteldo; Rondon


SM words green background

We say: Uruguay 2-1 Venezuela

A Rondon-inspired Venezuela are certainly capable of troubling this Uruguay defence despite the telepathic relationship between Diego Godin and Jose Gimenez, with the hosts still finding their feet under Alonso.

However, La Vinotinto have simply capitulated on the road during this Qualifying period, and while this may turn out to be a closer battle than it may look on paper, Uruguay should still get the job done to pile the pressure on Peru.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a home win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home Win:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uruguay win with a probability of 62%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Venezuela had a probability of 13.82%.

The most likely scoreline for a Uruguay win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.02%) and 2-1 (8.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.63%), while for a Venezuela win it was 0-1 (6.52%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Uruguay would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Uruguay vs Venezuela

Uruguay
76.8%
Draw
12.8%
Venezuela
10.4%
125
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