Universidad Catolica will hope to shake off their recent elimination in the Copa Chile when they host Palmeiras on Wednesday in the first leg of their last-16 tie in the Copa Libertadores from Estadio San Carlos de Apoquindo.
The Chilean side finished second in their group thanks to a 2-0 win in their final group stage match versus Atletico Nacional, while the defending champions easily topped Group A with five wins.
Match preview
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In the early stages of this competition, it seemed like La Catolica were doomed to miss the knockout stage for a 10th successive campaign, losing their opening two group stage matches and failing to score each time.
However, their manager Gustavo Poyet was able to get his team refocused after that, winning their next two matches and conceding only twice in their final two matches.
Now, they face a tall order going up against the defending champions, and Poyet will know that if his side are to upset the current leaders of the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A, they will likely need a victory at home on Wednesday.
Not only is it imperative that they win, but they will want to avoid conceding any away goals, and that is an area that they have struggled with on home soil this year, giving up six goals in their last two home fixtures at the Copa Chile and another three in the group stage of this tournament.
Defensively, they will need to be a lot sharper than they were in their final group stage match, when they gave up 19 shots, because Palmeiras rarely miss when they get a scoring opportunity.
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Palestra come into the Round of 16 in fine form, winning their last five league fixtures, and they were rarely troubled in the group stage of this competition, losing only once and scoring a tournament-high 20 goals.
Abel Ferreira has turned this team into an offensive juggernaut of late, scoring in each of their last nine games, losing only once in that stretch to a side that could be just as potent as they are in Bragantino.
This team are not only scoring at will at the moment, but they know what it takes to perform in knockout matches, advancing beyond the Round of 16 in each of their last three campaigns, losing only one of those six games.
This will be the first time they face La Catolica since 1968, so there may not be a lot of familiarity with how they play, but this side have had very little trouble against teams from Chile in this competition, winning seven of their eight fixtures, and losing only once.
If there is an Achilles heel for this team at the moment, it could be how they perform when trailing, as they have only conceded the opening goal three times in their previous 13 matches in all competitions, losing each time they do so.
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Team News
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Catolica winger Gonzalo Tapia has a torn muscle, while defenders Jose Pedro Fuenzalida and Raimundo Rebolledo both featured in the second leg of their Copa Chile tie with Everton and defensive midfielder Igancio Saavedra also saw action in that match after some time earlier this season with a fever.
Cato strikers Diego Valencia and Fernando Zampedri led the team in scoring in the group stage with two goals each, while goalkeeper Sebastian Perez started their final group stage match in place of Matias Dituro, making six saves and picking up a clean sheet.
Dituro is currently on loan at Celta de Vigo in La Liga in Spain, so expect to see Perez in goal for this match on Wednesday.
Palmeiras striker Rony has already improved on his 2020 tally in this tournament when he scored five goals, as he is currently tied for the lead at this competition with six, scoring a brace in three separate matches.
Winger Breno Lopes seems to have recovered nicely from his stretched ligament as he scored in their 3-2 over Santos last Saturday, while fellow winger Gabriel Veron is still nursing a hamstring injury.
Goalkeeper Weverton started all but one of their group stage games, but Jailson has started the last five matches in the Brasileiro Serie A.
Universidad Catolica possible starting lineup:
Perez; Parot, Salomon, Huerta, Ampuero, Montoya; Gutierrez, Aued, Leiva; Valencia, Zampedri
Palmeiras possible starting lineup:
Jailson; Luis, Melo, Gomez, Vina; Danilo, Ze Rafael; Lima, Scarpa; Wesley, Lopes
We say: Universidad Catolica 3-1 Palmeiras
This will be the first knockout stage match for the Chileans since 2011, and even though they have only lost one of their last six matches in all competitions at home, they have struggled defensively of late, and they cannot afford any lapses against the defending champions.
Palmeiras have won four of their last five road games, failing to score only once over that stretch, which could come in handy in this two-leg tie.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 48.55%. A win for Universidad Catolica had a probability of 29.71% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.02%) and 0-2 (5.95%). The likeliest Universidad Catolica win was 2-1 (6.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.12%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Palmeiras would win this match.
