Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Desna Chernihiv win with a probability of 37.7%. A win for Rukh Vynnyky had a probability of 36.51% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Desna Chernihiv win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.35%) and 2-0 (6.24%). The likeliest Rukh Vynnyky win was 0-1 (8.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.23%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Desna Chernihiv would win this match.