Toronto head into this weekend still searching for their first victory of the new MLS regular season as they host DC United on Saturday at BMO Field.
The Reds failed to hold onto a half time lead on the road to the Columbus Crew, losing 2-1 in their previous encounter, while the Black-and-Red suffered their first defeat of 2022, 2-0 versus the Chicago Fire.
Match preview
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It was a good start for TFC last weekend, as some quick movements and sharp running early on put the Crew on their heels, allowing them to take advantage in the opening half.
Unfortunately, their strong play early on has yet to translate into points for Bob Bradley and his team, as the American coach is without a victory in his opening three games with Toronto.
TFC should be highly aware of the attacking ability of DC United, who beat them twice in 2021, outscoring them 10-2, including a 7-1 win against The Reds in July, the worst defeat in franchise history.
While you cannot say that they have been torn apart like we saw a bunch of times last year, there is plenty of concern among the Toronto fans at the moment about how this young team have been progressing.
For the first time since 2012, this Canadian outfit have dropped their opening three games of the season, and they do not want to replicate that campaign again, when they finished bottom of the Eastern Conference table under the late Paul Mariner.
Their creativity and flow in the middle of the field has provided them with some quality scoring chances, which should translate into more goals when Lorenzo Insigne arrives from Serie A this summer.
In the meantime, they are struggling to keep their composure when something goes wrong, and TFC are making a bad habit of conceding in quick succession, with the New York Red Bulls scoring on them twice in two minutes in their home opener, while the Crew fired home two goals in nine minutes against The Reds to claim victory last week.
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After a solid opening two fixtures this year, Hernan Losada saw his side suffer their first setback of the season last Saturday.
The result versus the Fire may not have been what they deserved, as they had plenty of enterprising periods of play but failed to solve Gabriel Slonina, who was splendid in the Chicago goal.
After the match, Losada said that their final ball was lacking a bit of precision, while they also had difficulties with their accuracy in the final third, firing five efforts on target against the Fire.
Even though last week was the first match of the year in which DC conceded a goal, the Black-and-Red have struggled to contain opposing sides in attack, but they have been rescued countless times by goalkeeper Bill Hamid, who had to face eight shots on target versus Chicago after stopping six efforts in a 1-0 win over FC Cincinnati.
The effort from this entire group has certainly been a big plus for them in the early portion of this campaign, although the individual quality which we saw a year ago has not been as evident after three matches.
Collective balance is becoming a point of emphasis for this club heading into this upcoming fixture, and it is something that they have possessed a lot of when facing TFC in recent years.
DC are unbeaten against Toronto since 2017, and eight different players found the back of the net for them in their two games played against The Reds a year ago.
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Team News
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The Toronto injury woes on the backline have gone from bad to worse, with Chris Mavinga and Shane O'Neill ruled out due to previous knocks last weekend, Jacob Shaffelburg has a lower leg issue, Ayo Akinola is out with an ACL problem and Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty has been cleared to train, though it remains unclear if he will be available this weekend after suffering a leg injury versus the Crew.
Carlos Salcedo was suspended from their previous match due to serious foul play in the defeat to the Red Bulls, as the back three last Saturday consisted of Michael Bradley alongside Lukas MacNaughton and Kadin Chung.
Jesus Jimenez has proven to be an excellent signing for The Reds early on, as he scored the opener versus Columbus, his second of the year, with Alejandro Pozuelo picking up his first assist of the campaign.
Andy Najar started for the Black-and-Red against the Fire only a few days after signing a multi-year extension through until the 2023 season, while Russell Canouse missed that encounter with a groin injury and Moses Nyeman was suspended following his ejection in their dramatic victory against Cincy.
Their leading goalscorer of 2021, Ola Kamara, who tallied 19 times that year, has two so far in the new campaign, putting him even with teammate Michael Estrada.
Losada made three changes to his starting 11 last weekend as Sofiane Djeffal was inserted into the lineup, replacing the suspended Nyeman, Adrien Perez took the place of Griffin Yow as an attacking midfielder and Kamara played as the lone striker up high rather than Estrada.
Toronto possible starting lineup:
Bono; Chung, MacNaughton, Salcedo; Osorio, Bradley; Petrasso, Priso, Pozuelo, Okello; Jimenez
DC United possible starting lineup:
Hamid; Najar, Birnbaum, Pines; Gressel, Skundrich, Djeffal, Yow; Flores, Estrada; Kamara
We say: Toronto 1-2 DC United
The Black-and-Red have had their way with Toronto in recent memory and given that right now TFC are hurting defensively with so many players who might not be 100% fit, Bob Bradley might have to wait a little longer for his first win with his new team.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 45.29%. A win for DC United had a probability of 28.93% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.12%) and 2-0 (8.03%). The likeliest DC United win was 0-1 (8.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toronto would win this match.
