Taca de Portugal | Third Round

Oct 20, 2024 at 4.15pm UK

Estadio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira

Chaves
2 - 0
Lusitania FC Lourosa

Filipe Tavares Pina (68'), Victor (81')
Pius (20')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Joao Nogueira Pereira (46'), Manuel Neiva de Almeida Martins (51'), Ribeiro (75'), Villela Iapert (90+5')

Coverage of the Taca de Portugal Third Round clash between Chaves and Lusitania FC Lourosa.

Form, Standings, Stats

Chaves

All competitions

Last Game: Chaves 2-0 Deportivo
Saturday, August 3 at 6pm in Club Friendlies 3

Lusitania FC Lourosa

All competitions

Last Game: Lusitania FC Lourosa 1-1 Boavista
Saturday, July 27 at 5pm in Club Friendlies 3

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chaves win with a probability of 61.56%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Lusitania FC Lourosa had a probability of 16.03%.

The most likely scoreline for a Chaves win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.02%) and 2-1 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.59%), while for a Lusitania FC Lourosa win it was 0-1 (5.82%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 12% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chaves would win this match.

Result
Chaves	Draw	Lusitania FC Lourosa
61.56% ( 0.53)	22.41% ( -0.1)	16.03% ( -0.42)

Both teams to score 46.25% (

-0.57)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.76% (

-0.29)

51.24% (

0.29)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.92% (

-0.25)

73.07% (

0.25)

Chaves Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

83.82% (

0.08)

16.18% (

-0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

54.35% (

0.14)

45.64% (

-0.14)

Lusitania FC Lourosa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

55.18% (

-0.73)

44.82% (

0.73)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.21% (

-0.59)

80.79% (

0.59)

Score Analysis

Chaves 61.54%

Lusitania FC Lourosa 16.03%

Draw 22.4%

Chaves	Draw	Lusitania FC Lourosa
1-0 @ 13.2% ( 0.18) 2-0 @ 12.02% ( 0.2) 2-1 @ 9.65% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 7.3% ( 0.14) 3-1 @ 5.86% ( -0) 4-0 @ 3.33% ( 0.07) 4-1 @ 2.67% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.35% ( -0.05) 5-0 @ 1.21% ( 0.03) 4-2 @ 1.07% ( -0.02) 5-1 @ 0.97% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.9% Total : 61.54%	1-1 @ 10.59% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 7.25% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 3.87% ( -0.09) Other @ 0.69% Total : 22.4%	0-1 @ 5.82% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 4.25% ( -0.11) 0-2 @ 2.34% ( -0.07) 1-3 @ 1.14% ( -0.05) 2-3 @ 1.04% ( -0.05) Other @ 1.45% Total : 16.03%