Iraq head into their final third round match of World Cup 2022 qualifying on Tuesday in need of a victory over Syria to keep the hope of qualification alive.
Both teams are coming off victories last week, with the Syrians blanking Lebanon 3-0, while the Lions of Mesopotamia came up with a big 1-0 win over the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
Match preview
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With their qualifying campaign coming to an end, Syria gave us a glimpse into what they are capable of last Thursday, winning their first match in the third round and collecting a clean sheet for the first time since a 3-0 triumph over Guam in 2021.
It was by no means a dominant display, as they only had 36% of the possession and a pass accuracy of 63%, but they were lethal in front of goal, scoring on three of their four efforts on target.
Ghassan Maatouk is the fifth manager appointed to this side throughout these 2022 qualifiers in what has been quite an ordeal for these players.
While his debut in their previous encounter was a successful one, it will be interesting to see what sort of identity the former Syrian defender chooses to implement within this group for this qualifying match.
The Syrians entered qualification at a considerable disadvantage, currently banned by FIFA from playing on their home soil, meaning that all of their home games have taken place in the UAE.
After an impressive performance in the second round, winning seven of their eight fixtures to top their group, these players have discovered that they still have work to do when competing with the elite nations in Asia.
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It is a do-or-die situation for Iraq, who are a point back of the UAE for third place in Group A and a chance to face Australia in the fourth round.
They have started to peak right in the nick of time, unbeaten in their previous three matches in all competitions, although with a goal difference of -6 compared to -1 for the UAE, Iraq need to win this match and hope for South Korea to do the same against Al Abyad.
Like the Syrians, Iraq have gone through a coaching carousel themselves, winning five second-round qualifiers under Srecko Katanec before he left over alleged unpaid wages, then Dick Advocaat failed to win his first six matches in charge and resigned, leaving way for Zeljko Petrovic.
However, a loss and a draw in his first two qualifying fixtures meant that he was sacked, and now it is up to Abdul-Ghani Shahad to try to finish the job and keep their World Cup dream afloat.
Throughout these qualifiers, the Iraqis have invited their share of pressure and struggled to win their duels in the middle of the field, creating few scoring chances along the way.
They have not won a match in this entire qualification cycle when conceding first, although they are yet to lose when scoring the opening goal.
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Team News
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Alaa Al Dali notched the winner for Syria versus Lebanon last week, his first for the national team, with the other goals coming courtesy of Mardik Mardikian and Mohammad Al Marmour.
Ahmad Madania stopped all three of the Lebanese shots that he faced to collect a clean sheet, and Mustafa Jneid earned his second cap for the senior squad, replacing Al Marmour as a substitute late in the second half.
Only three players who began the match versus South Korea also started their game on Thursday, including Thaer Krouma, Amro Jenyat and Kamel Hmeisheh.
Hussein Ali scored his fifth international goal for Iraq in their victory last week and his first since 2019, while Aymen Hussein collected his 50th cap and goalkeeper Jalal Hassan made his 60th appearance, stopping three shots, to preserve the shutout.
Manaf Younis is one of only three players who was able to keep his place in the starting 11 over their last two encounters, with the others being Saad Abdul-Amir and Aymen Hussein.
Zidane Iqbal, who was a late substitute for Manchester United in a Champions League encounter back in December, has made two appearances for the national team but has yet to feature in the starting lineup.
Syria possible starting lineup:
Madania; Kurdaghli, Krouma, Midani, Jenyat; Marmour, Al-Mawas, Kass Kawo, Jneid; Samia, Mardikian
Iraq possible starting lineup:
Hasan; Ibrahim, Ismail, Faez; Abdul-Amir, Ali, Meram, Bayesh; Iqbal, Farhan; Abdul-Raheem
We say: Syria 1-1 Iraq
These are two evenly matched teams who are searching to find a clear identity and a brand of football that is suitable to their skill set.
Iraq still have something to play for on Tuesday, but like Syria, they have not shown a ton of consistency in this round of qualifying, and seeing as there is no decided edge when you look at these sides on paper, a draw seems like a probable scenario.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Syria win with a probability of 43.93%. A win for Iraq had a probability of 29.56% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Syria win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.89%) and 2-0 (8.02%). The likeliest Iraq win was 0-1 (8.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.59%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.
