Melbourne Victory play host to Sydney FC on Sunday looking to end their five-match winless streak in the A-League.
While the visitors have improved in recent weeks, they head into this contest on the back of a 1-0 defeat away at third-placed Adelaide United.
Match preview
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Having finished in 11th position last season, supporters of Melbourne Victory would have been optimistic about an improved campaign in 2020-21.
However, Grant Brebner's side now find themselves in bottom spot, having claimed just one point from their most recent five fixtures.
On the plus side, their solitary stalemate came away at leaders Central Coast Mariners last week, holding on for a share of the spoils after their hosts had equalised shortly after the half-hour mark.
For a team who had previously conceded 17 goals in four matches, it represented a significant step in the right direction, both in terms of result and character shown by a backline completely out of form.
Nevertheless, still sitting seven points adrift of 10th place, Brebner's team can ill-afford another setback at the weekend if they want to keep in close proximity to their teams directly above them.
As far as Sydney FC are concerned, the defending champions are desperate to respond to two matches without success, their latest results leaving the club 10 points adrift of the leaders.
With two matches in hand, Steve Corica will not be too concerned at this stage, but they are one more defeat away from potentially dropping down to ninth position.
Sydney have failed to prevail in their last four fixtures on their travels, putting Corica in a position where he may have to reconsider his tactics on away territory.
Corica must also find a regular contributor in the final third with none of this squad scoring more than three goals during the opening 13 fixtures.
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Team News
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After his side's showing against the Mariners, Brebner will give consideration to naming the same Victory XI for this contest.
However, former Stoke City defender Ryan Shotton made his return from injury in the last game, putting himself into contention for a recall in defence.
Callum McManaman is expected to keep his place in attack after netting his third goal of the season.
Rhyan Grant could be handed a recall to the Sydney starting lineup having served his one-match suspension for five yellow cards.
The 30-year-old is expected to get the nod over Harry Van der Saag, while teenager Patrick Wood could return in attack.
Melbourne Victory possible starting lineup:
Acton; Roux, Ansell, Ryan, Traore; Barnett, Butterfield; McManaman, Brimmer, Kruse; Kamsoba
Sydney FC possible starting lineup:
Redmayne; Grant, McGowan, Wilkinson, King; Caceres, Brattan, Retre, Ninkovic; Wood, Barbarouses
We say: Melbourne Victory 1-2 Sydney FC
On the back of a positive result against the league leaders, Victory will be confident of progressing further on Sunday. However, Sydney look the better equipped to claim maximum points, leading us to predict a narrow win for the mid-table outfit.
Top tip
Darren Plant
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sydney FC win with a probability of 54.53%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Melbourne Victory had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sydney FC win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.82%) and 0-2 (9.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.02%), while for a Melbourne Victory win it was 1-0 (6.19%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sydney FC would win this match.
