Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Gallen win with a probability of 52.33%. A win for Lugano had a probability of 26.07% and a draw had a probability of 21.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Gallen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.89%) and 1-0 (6.86%). The likeliest Lugano win was 1-2 (6.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.39%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.