Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Thun win with a probability of 48.68%. A win for FC Winterthur had a probability of 28.63% and a draw had a probability of 22.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Thun win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.39%) and 0-2 (6.82%). The likeliest FC Winterthur win was 2-1 (6.95%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.13%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.