Sutton United will aim to strengthen their spot in the top seven of the League Two table on Tuesday, when they host Crawley Town.
The home side's lead over eighth place was cut to just one point as they suffered a defeat at the weekend, but Tuesday acts as their game in hand over the chasing pack in the playoff race.
Match preview
© Reuters
In what has been a particularly tight race for promotion in League Two, Sutton United gave their playoff hopes a huge boost with three straight fourth-tier wins in April.
After a valiant effort against Rotherham United in the EFL Trophy final at Wembley, which they eventually lost in extra time, Matt Gray's side bounced back with a narrow victory over Leyton Orient and made it consecutive wins by beating sixth-placed Mansfield Town 3-2.
Rob Milsom then fired the Us to a 1-0 triumph over Newport County, giving them an enviable cushion inside the playoff places with four games left to play.
Their lead over eighth place was slashed again last time out, though, as they travelled to Barrow and left empty-handed with John Rooney's 68th-minute goal making the only difference.
While they now sit just one point ahead of Salford City, Gray's side will play a game in hand on Tuesday, meaning a victory would put them four points clear with just two games to play and put a place in the playoffs within touching distance.
They meet a Crawley side who have far less to play for but will, at least, be aiming for a top-half finish in League Two.
While they were never in contention for a playoff place, Lewis Young's side have enjoyed an impressive run of form recently, winning five of their last seven games as they firstly beat Swindon Town and Rochdale before falling to a defeat at the hands of Salford City.
The Red Devils instantly bounced back, putting a run of three consecutive wins together at the beginning of April, seeing off Barrow and Newport County before making it three on the bounce as Isaac Hutchinson hit the only goal of the game at home to Walsall.
Crawley were stopped in their tracks at the weekend, though, falling to a 2-0 defeat in a tough test away at promotion-chasing Mansfield Town after John Yems was suspended due to "serious and credible" accusations of discriminatory language being made against him.
Nonetheless, Crawley remain in the top half thanks to their impressive run in the last two months, and, with a five-point lead over 13th-placed Leyton Orient, they will know one more win from the last three games will seal a finish in the top 12.
- W
- L
- W
- W
- W
- L
- L
- L
- W
- W
- W
- L
- W
- L
- W
- W
- W
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Sutton United captain Craig Eastmond missed out last time out through injury, and he could remain on the sidelines, with Alistair Smith and Kenny Davis operating in the engine room in his absence.
Donovan Wilson will be pushing to return to the starting XI, having hit eight goals for the Us so far this season.
That tally is only matched by winger David Ajiboye, who remains a key man in attack with eight goals and four assists to his name in League Two this season.
Crawley Town are without attacker James Tilley, who was sent off in their defeat to Mansfield Town.
That is bad timing for Young's side, with top scorer Kwesi Appiah also unable to feature due to an injury.
As a result, plenty of responsibility will fall on Tom Nichols, who has netted 10 goals and provided four assists in league action this term.
Sutton United possible starting lineup:
Bouzanis; Kizzi, Goodliffe, John, Milsom; Ajiboye, Davis, Smith, Boldewijn; Bugiel, Wilson
Crawley Town possible starting lineup:
Morris; Francillette, Tunnicliffe, Lynch; Davies, Hessenthaler, Francomb, Hutchinson, Ferry; Nichols, Oteh
We say: Sutton United 2-1 Crawley Town
With far more to play for and the incentive of moving four points clear of the playoff-chasing sides, Sutton United should have enough to get over the line on Tuesday, albeit with the visitors expected to put up a fight.
Top tip
Sam Varley
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sutton United win with a probability of 55.94%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for Crawley Town had a probability of 19.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sutton United win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.24%) and 2-1 (9.41%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.61%), while for a Crawley Town win it was 0-1 (7.17%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sutton United would win this match.
