Stoke City play host to Birmingham City on Saturday afternoon knowing that only three points will do if they want to remain in close proximity to the Championship playoffs.
Now sitting 15 points clear of the relegation zone, Birmingham can travel to the Potteries with the freedom to push for a second win in succession.
Match preview
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When Stoke travelled to the City Ground to face Nottingham Forest last weekend, a share of the spoils would have probably felt like an acceptable result.
However, having led 2-1 with a player advantage heading into stoppage time, Michael O'Neill and his squad were left hugely disappointed not to collect all three points at the home of a promotion rival.
Despite their unbeaten run being extended to three games, the Potters now sit in the bottom half of the table, and it has upped the stakes ahead of this game as they bid to stay in the race for the top six.
Possessing at least one match in hand on many of the teams above them, Stoke cannot be written off at this stage, but they need to take advantage of three favourable home matches which are coming up over the next two weeks.
Josh Maja has scored in two of his three outings since joining from Bordeaux, giving a much-needed lift to a forward line which has competition for places without goals being scored at a regular rate.
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For all of the issues which have been occurring away from the pitch, Lee Bowyer deserves more credit than he has received for keeping Birmingham out of a relegation battle.
Last weekend's 3-0 demolition of Luton Town has taken their recent tally to eight points from a possible 18, their two defeats coming against Sheffield United and Bournemouth.
Now sitting 15 points clear of the drop zone, Blues can afford to relax to a certain extent, but they will want to remain on an upward trajectory having made some notable additions in January.
In four games, Juninho Bacuna and Lyle Taylor have chipped in with four goals and two assists between them, while fellow January signing Onel Hernandez also has three strikes and an assist from eight matches.
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Team News
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Barring any injury issues, O'Neill may select the Stoke XI which performed well at Forest last weekend.
Tyrese Campbell is unlikely to be risked, despite his knee injury being less severe than first feared, with Sam Clucas potentially the only player in with a chance of a recall.
Defender Ben Wilmot heads into this contest one yellow card away from a ban.
Bowyer could also decide to stick with the same players from Birmingham's last game should he encounter no fresh fitness concerns.
Substitutions were only made against Luton once the game was over as a contest, with Jordan Graham impressing in his unfamiliar role at wing-back.
Stoke City possible starting lineup:
Bursik; Wilmot, Jagielka, Harwood-Bellis, Tymon; Baker, Allen, Powell; Brown, Maja, Philogene-Bidace
Birmingham City possible starting lineup:
Etheridge; Colin, Mengi, Pedersen; Graham, Gardner, Woods, Bela; Bacuna; Taylor, Hernandez
We say: Stoke City 2-1 Birmingham City
Birmingham head into this contest under far less pressure than their hosts, and that could show in their performance. Nevertheless, we feel that the home side should have enough quality to edge this contest by the odd goal in three, potentially with a goal during the closing stages.
Top tip
Darren Plant
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 58.95%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Birmingham City had a probability of 17.53%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.68%) and 2-1 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.08%), while for a Birmingham City win it was 0-1 (6.42%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood.
