Scottish League Two leaders Kelty Hearts will be looking to eliminate another Premiership side from the Scottish Cup when they travel to Paisley to face St Mirren in the fifth round on Saturday.
The Jambos pulled off a surprise cup upset against reigning champions St Johnstone in the fourth round, while the Buddies secured a routine win away at Ayr United.
Match preview
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St Mirren extended their unbeaten run to six matches across all competitions when they came from behind to win 2-1 at home against basement club St Johnstone in the Premiership on Wednesday night.
Callum Hendry's 28th-minute penalty put the visitors in front, but Connor Ronan equalised on the stroke of half time when he converted his own effort from 12 yards.
St Mirren then took the lead four minutes after the break when January signing Alex Grieve tapped in his first goal for the club from close range, which proved to be the winning strike for the hosts.
Jim Goodwin's men, who remain unbeaten in 2022, have moved up to sixth in the Premiership table and sit just one point behind Dundee United in fourth.
The Buddies now turn their attention to the Scottish Cup, a competition which they won for the third time back in 1986-87. Since then, they have only made it as far as the semi-finals once in 2008-09, but Goodwin and co will fancy their chances of going all the way this term.
St Mirren, who won 2-0 against Ayr in the fourth round, have never faced Kelty Hearts in a competitive fixture, but they will be confident of beating their League Two counterparts this weekend.
Kelty Hearts, however, will be no pushovers in Paisley as they have already shown that they are capable of a giant killing after they beat Scottish Cup holders St Johnstone 1-0 at the end of last month.
An extra-time winner from Kallum Higginbotham in the 103rd minute helped the Jambos claim a memorable victory against Premiership opposition to reach the fifth round for the first time in their history.
Spirits are understandably high among the Kelty Hearts camp and since their triumph over St Johnstone, Kevin Thomson's men have extended their lead at the League Two summit to 10 points after back-to-back wins against Stranraer and Elgin City.
Kelty Hearts – who are one of two fourth-tier teams, along with Annan Athletic, still competing in the Scottish Cup – will be aware of the threat that an in-form St Mirren outfit will pose this weekend, but they will be hoping to thrive on the occasion and produce another cup upset.
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Team News
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St Mirren boss Goodwin confirmed earlier in the week that Eamonn Brophy's knee injury is not as serious as first feared, but the club's top goalscorer remains sidelined for the next three to four weeks.
Curtis Main, who missed the midweek fixture with St Johnstone, is doubtful with a groin problem and will be assessed ahead of kickoff.
Grieve could therefore start again up front, with Greg Kiltie, Connor Ronan and Jordan Jones set to provide support in attack.
As for Kelty Hearts, Thomson is expected to field a strong starting lineup, which will likely see either Alfredo Agyeman or Nathan Austin join Higginbotham and Joe Cardle in a three-man attack.
Goalkeeper Darren Jamieson is set to be protected by a back four of Danial Finlayson, Jordan Forster, Thomas O'Ware and Kieran Ngwenya, while club captain Michael Tidser could be joined in centre-midfield by Jamie Barjonas and Ross Philip.
St Mirren possible starting lineup:
Alnwick; Fraser, Shaughnessy, Dunne, Tait; Erhahon, Power; Kiltie, Ronan, Jones; Grieve
Kelty Hearts possible starting lineup:
Jamieson, Finlayson, Forster, O'Ware, Ngwenya; Philip, Tidser, Barjonas; Higginbotham, Agyeman, Cardle
We say: St Mirren 3-1 Kelty Hearts
While Kelty Hearts fans and many football neutrals will be rooting for another Scottish Cup upset on Saturday, St Mirren are understandably the strong favourites to come out on top.
Goodwin is set to name a strong side which should have enough quality to see off their fourth-tier counterparts and book their place in the quarter-finals.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Mirren win with a probability of 52.03%. A draw had a probability of 24.1% and a win for Kelty Hearts had a probability of 23.87%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Mirren win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.68%) and 2-0 (9.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.44%), while for a Kelty Hearts win it was 0-1 (6.76%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that St Mirren would win this match.
