A pair of slumping Major League Soccer teams return to action on Saturday as Sporting Kansas City host the Columbus Crew at Children's Mercy Park.
Kansas City have lost three in a row, falling 3-1 at Los Angeles FC last weekend, while the Crew were knocked out of the U.S. Open Cup this week, losing 2-1 to USL side Detroit City.
Match preview
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One of the most consistent teams in MLS history have struggled with precisely that in 2022, as the Wizards have six points after eight games, the fewest that they have accumulated to this stage of a league campaign since 2011.
Because of how much he has done in building the club and his role within the organization, it seems unlikely that Peter Vermes would be sacked like a pair of MLS coaches were earlier this week (Hernan Losada and Matias Almeyda).
At the moment, though, the 55-year-old has a lot of issues that he needs to address with this group, as his players are not playing up to their potential.
Since the end of the 2014 regular season, Kansas City have only suffered one losing streak that was longer than three games, when they dropped four in a row in 2019, the only time in Vermes' tenure as coach where the Wizards missed the playoffs.
They may look invincible when leading in the latter stages of a game, going 22-0-1 in regular-season play since July 2020 when holding an advantage beyond the 75th minute.
However, they have been ahead in each of their previous two contests in the opening half and have nothing to show for it, falling 2-1 to Nashville SC and then 3-1 against the Black and Gold.
The Wizards have found the back of the net in six consecutive games played at Children's Mercy Park, including the playoffs, and a goal on Saturday would be the 700th all-time for this club at home in regular-season play.
Their six goals scored to this point of the year is tied for the second-fewest in MLS, though it is not from a lack of effort, as they have 99 shot attempts so far in 2022, good for third-most in the league.
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A promising start to the 2022 campaign has temporarily fallen off the rails for Caleb Porter and his Columbus Crew, who are winless in five consecutive matches in all competitions.
When you thought things could not get any worse, the Crew were upset by a USL club in the U.S. Open Cup this week, as they squandered an early one-goal advantage, with Detroit midfielder Maxi Rodriguez scoring twice in the second half.
Columbus enter this match on a 270-minute scoreless drought in MLS play, failing to fire home a first-half goal in five straight domestic fixtures.
They lead the league in shots per game (17) while ranking second in pass accuracy (84.1%) and third in possession (58.6%), so to see them struggling the way they are at the moment is somewhat puzzling.
In 2021, you could argue that continuity was the main thing holding them back, with Porter being forced to make numerous changes to his lineup each game because of injuries.
It seems as though there is continuity so far this year, with nine different players starting all seven regular-season matches for the club, though there seems to be a lack of chemistry in spite of their experience.
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Team News
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The usual three players who have missed quite a bit of time this season for SKC are likely to be out once again, as Gadi Kinda and Alan Pulido will need a long time to recover from their respective knee surgeries, while Uri Rosell is questionable with a thigh problem.
Goalkeeper Tim Melia can surpass Jimmy Conrad for the seventh-most regular-season starts in club history if he gets the call on Saturday, while he is only six saves away from hitting 600 in the regular season for the Wizards.
Roger Espinoza has a chance to move beyond Matt Besler for the second-most appearances in club history, as they currently both sit at 294.
Remi Walter leads the team in goals with two and is first in MLS for distance covered (57.4 miles), while Scottish forward Johnny Russell can pick up his 500th career cap for club and country if he is on the field this weekend.
Lucas Zelarayan is off to another fantastic start in this campaign, as the Columbus midfielder leads the league in key passes (28) and has four goals, one behind Jeremy Ebobisse, Chicharito, Jesus Ferreira and Sebastian Driussi in the Golden Boot race.
Columbus striker Kevin Molino is nursing a right knee injury, while Luis Diaz is questionable with a back problem.
Gyasi Zardes had the only tally for the Crew in their defeat to Detroit City, while veteran Evan Bush got the start in goal, replacing Eloy Room.
Room, Steven Moreira, Jonathan Mensah, Milos Degenek and Pedro Santos are the only players who have started every match this season for Columbus, with Santos currently fourth in the league when it comes to tackles won (16).
Sporting Kansas City possible starting lineup:
Melia; Sweat, Fontas, Isimat-Mirin, Zusi; Espinoza, Walter; Hernandez; Salloi, Shelton, Russell
Columbus Crew possible starting lineup:
Room; Santos, Degenek, Mensah, Moreira; Artur, Nagbe; Hairston, Zelarayan, Etienne; Zardes
We say: Sporting Kansas City 1-1 Columbus Crew
These may be the two most underwhelming sides in MLS as they each have the quality and experience to contend for the title, but thus far have not shown that consistently.
Despite each team being technically gifted, neither one have been able to show that killer instinct in front of goal, and because of that expect this to be a low-scoring affair.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Kansas City win with a probability of 48.3%. A win for Columbus Crew had a probability of 26.76% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Kansas City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.42%) and 2-0 (8.43%). The likeliest Columbus Crew win was 0-1 (7.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.85%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
