Sport Recife will hope to keep their momentum going in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A as they prepare to host Bragantino on Friday at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho.
Leao have points in their last three league fixtures, currently sitting in 15th, while Braga got their campaign back on track with a 1-0 win over Gremio last Saturday.
Match preview
© Reuters
In a month that began with a three-match losing run, Umberto Louzer and his side were able to make some excellent adjustments as the month carried on, winning two of their last three fixtures as they are currently on a three-game unbeaten streak, their longest of this campaign.
Those wins have moved them above the relegation zone, but with 24 games still to be played, their work is far from over as they are only two points above Sao Paulo, who are in the last relegation spot at the moment.
Even though they are on a roll at the moment, it is not as if they have been all that dominant in their last three matches, firing only two shots on target over their previous two league games, and they have not had more than 40% possession in two of their last three fixtures.
That being said, earning seven points out of a possible nine is a positive step in the right direction for this side, especially seeing as they have not conceded in any of their last three games.
The next step for this team will be to give their fans something to cheer about, having only one win in their six home games so far this year and failing to score on four occasions.
Three of their next four fixtures are at home, so they will try to turn around their fortunes on their own field and earn another victory on Friday.
© Reuters
Bragantino flew out of the gate in the opening few weeks of this campaign, but last month their early season momentum seemed to take a bit of a tumble.
Fatigue may be setting in for Mauricio Barbieri and his side, who had to play a total of nine games in July, including two legs of their round of 16 tie at the Copa Sudamericana versus Independiente del Valle, which they won 3-1 on aggregate.
Winning only two of their seven league fixtures has dropped them into fourth in the Serie A table after being neck and neck with Palmeiras for first place for a good portion of the season.
They are still the top-scoring team in Brazil with 25 goals, but lately it seems that other teams are starting to figure out how to shut them down, or the scoring depth of this side is not as good as we think it is.
Massa Bruta scored multiple goals in their first six league matches, but in July they were held off the scoresheet twice while scoring a single goal in two other fixtures.
The teams near the bottom of the table have given this high-octane offence a run for their money lately, with Braga narrowly beating Gremio last week 1-0, drawing Cuiaba 1-1 earlier last month and needing a late goal to beat Sao Paulo, 2-1.
- L
- D
- L
- W
- D
- W
- W
- D
- D
- D
- L
- W
- D
- W
- D
- D
- L
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Recife goalkeeper Mailson has kept three successive clean sheets in league play, making seven saves in that time, while striker Mikael scored his first goal of the season in their victory last week.
Louzer made four changes to the starting 11 last Sunday from how they lined up versus Ceara with Ronaldo and Paulinho starting in midfield instead of Marcao and Gustavo, while Andre was their lone striker upfront replacing Mikael, who came on as a substitute.
Bragantino made only one change to their starting lineup versus Gremio from their previous match, with Eric Ramires starting in their last game in midfield instead of Lucas Evangelista.
Their top scorer, Ytalo, is without a goal in his last three games, but he still has six strikes in the Brasileiro this year, the second-most in the league at this stage of the season, while Leo Ortiz assisted on their only goal last week, his first assist of this campaign.
Sport Recife possible starting lineup:
Mailson; Chico, Sabino, Thyere, Hayner; Ze Welison, Marcao; Gustavo, Lopes, Everaldo; Mikael
Bragantino possible starting lineup:
Cleiton; Aderlan, Bruno, Ortiz, Natan; Raul, Evangelista; Cuello, Praxedes, Artur; Ytalo
We say: Sport Recife 0-2 Bragantino
Recife have been able to keep their matches tight, but their scoring chances are likely to be few and far between against a side like Bragantino, who have scored 13 goals on the road.
Braga should have their fair share of scoring opportunities this weekend against a team who seem to be more focused on preventing goals than scoring them, and you would think that pressure will eventually pay off.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bragantino win with a probability of 48.79%. A draw had a probability of 27.7% and a win for Sport Recife had a probability of 23.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bragantino win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.12%) and 1-2 (8.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.67%), while for a Sport Recife win it was 1-0 (9.28%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood.
