Aiming to take another step towards a record-extending 10th Euro Under-17 Championship crown, Spain Under-17s tackle holders France Under-17s in Tuesday afternoon's semi final at the Pancho Arena in Felcsut.
Either Poland Under-17s or Germany Under-17s will be awaiting the victors in the final, with the other two semi-finalists going head-to-head a few hours later.
Match preview
Failing to keep a clean sheet in the group stage and drawing their final game, Spain's opening to the 2023 Euro Under-17 Championship was far from perfect, but a tally of seven points from a possible nine against Italy, Slovenia and Serbia saw La Rojita comfortably book their place in the quarter-finals.
A Republic of Ireland-shaped test awaited Spain in the last eight, but Julen Guerrero's charges barely needed to get out of second gear to record a dominant 3-0 win courtesy of goals from Alejandro Granados, Marc Guiu - who leads the way in the tournament with four strikes - and Barcelona protege Lamine Yamal.
By sweeping aside the Irish, Spain also confirmed their spot at the upcoming 2023 Under-17 World Cup as one of the five best performing sides at the continental championships, as well as improving on their quarter-final exit from 2022, when Portugal sent them packing.
Consistently producing some of the finest young talent the continent has to offer, Spain have already been crowned Euro Under-17 champions on nine occasions - most recently in 2017 - but their last appearance in the semi-finals ended in defeat to the Netherlands in 2019.
Entering the semi-finals on a 10-game unbeaten streak in all competitions, Spain have also failed to score just once in their last 30 matches, but the defending champions will be no pushovers on the Felcsut turf.
While Spain's route to the semi-finals has been a relatively straightforward one, France have hardly been pulling up trees as defending champions, only just scraping through Group C in second place with four points to their name.
An opening-day 3-1 win over Scotland proved priceless for Jean-Luc Vannuchi's team, who subsequently lost to Germany and drew with Portugal - whom they finished level with points on but bested on goal difference - and a challenging semi-final versus Group D winners England was their reward for their shortcomings.
However, the holders produced a dogged defensive display and were awarded a penalty in the dying embers, which Mathis Lambourde converted in the 89th minute to seal a 1-0 win and a place in the final four to keep their dreams of back-to-back Euro Under-17 titles alive.
France struggling to assert their dominance as defending champions is nothing new; Les Bleuets went out in the 2016 group stage without winning a game after their triumphant 2015 run, but Lambourde's spot kick versus England stretched their own stellar goalscoring run to 18 matches.
Since being humiliated 6-1 by France in the quarter-finals of the 2019 Under-17 World Cup, Spain have beaten the reigning European champions four times in a row in friendly matches - most recently prevailing 2-1 in April 2022 and outscoring Les Bleuets 14-3 in the process.
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Team News
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With no fresh fitness issues to report from their quarter-final success over Ireland, Spain boss Guerrero should see little reason to alter a winning formula, as four-goal top scorer Guiu continues to spearhead the charge at the tip of the attack.
Yamal - who became Barcelona's youngest-ever player in April - is only one behind his compatriot with three strikes in the tournament so far, while his fellow Barcelona academy product Pau Prim should captain La Rojita from the base of the midfield.
Guerrero peculiarly took off goalkeeper Raul Jimenez in the dying embers to give Fran Arbol a run-out, but there is nothing to suggest that the former will not start this one, although Oscar Mesa is back from a ban and could give Daniel Munoz a run for his money at left-back.
As for France, Vannuchi did not shy away from making several changes to his team for the quarter-finals; six players who were on the bench for their final group game against Portugal were promoted to the starting lineup for the showdown with England.
The Bleuets boss' alterations worked a treat, and it would not be a shock to see a similar XI take to the field here, as 12-yard hero Lambourde gets the nod in the number nine role over Joan Tincres.
However, Tidiane Diallo picked up his second yellow card of the tournament in the quarters and will sit out the semi-final through suspension, opening the door for Tidiam Gomis to start on the left wing.
Spain Under-17s possible starting lineup:
Jimenez; Merino, Martin, Cubarsi, Munoz; Granados, Prim, Hernandez; Yamal, Guiu, Fernandez
France Under-17s possible starting lineup:
Argney; Titi, Meupiyou, Kayi Sanda, Sangui; Bouabre, Ferro, Bouneb; Bouchenna, Lambourde, Gomis
We say: Spain Under-17s 2-1 France Under-17s
As defending champions, France are not to be discounted at this level, but Les Bleuets' defensive deficiencies are there to be exposed by a free-scoring Spain crop.
Vannuchi's side have their own golden touch in attack, albeit one that was only prolonged thanks to a late penalty last time out, and we expect their title defence to come to an end on Tuesday as Spain advance to a 16th final.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spain Under-17s win with a probability of 41%. A win for France Under-17s had a probability of 34.62% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spain Under-17s win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8%) and 2-0 (6.22%). The likeliest France Under-17s win was 1-2 (7.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood.
Ben Knapton
