World Cup

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World Cup Qualifying - Asia | Third Round

Sep 7, 2021 at 12pm UK

South Korea
1 - 0
Lebanon

Chang-hoon (60')
Chang-hoon (62')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Maatouk (49'), Shour (56'), Al Zein (71')

Preview: South Korea vs. Lebanon - prediction, team news, lineups

By Sam Varley, Reporter

Published: September 6 2021 | 01:13

Last updated: June 5 2024 | 13:58

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's World Cup Qualifying - Asia clash between South Korea and Lebanon, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

After both drawing their opening games, South Korea and Lebanon will square off on Tuesday in the third round of the Asian World Cup Qualifiers.

The hosts were held to a somewhat disappointing draw by Iraq on Thursday, while their visitors drew with United Arab Emirates by the same scoreline.

Match preview

South Korea manager Paulo Bento pictured in 2019 © Reuters

South Korea cruised through the second round of the Asian World Cup Qualifiers with relative ease, beginning with a 2-0 win over Turkmenistan and an 8-0 thrashing of Sri Lanka, as Kim Shin-wook hit four goals alongside a Son Heung-min brace and goals from Hwang Hee-chan and Kwon Chang-hoon.

The Tigers of Asia were then held to a goalless draw by Lebanon, before bouncing back with consecutive 5-0 victories over Turkmenistan and Sri Lanka.

After being held to their only draw earlier in the group stage, Paulo Bento's side managed to defeat Tuesday's opponents 2-1 in the final game, as Son Heung-min netted the winner from the penalty spot after a Maher Sabra own goal had drawn them level.

That record saw South Korea progress to the third round in first place, but they were unable to start the new phase with a win last time out, as they took on Iraq on home turf on Thursday.

Bento's side were unable to break the deadlock and were forced to settle for a point, and they will be keen to quickly put their first three-point haul on the board to establish themselves in the top two spots.

They take on a Lebanon side who progressed through the same group in the second round, beginning with a 2-1 win over Turkmenistan.

South Korea's Shin-Wook Kim scores their third goal from the penalty on June 9, 2021 © Reuters

The Cedars then won 3-0 away against Sri Lanka, before earning another commendable point as they held Tuesday's opponents to a goalless draw.

Lebanon made a return to winning ways in the group with a 3-2 victory over Sri Lanka, but fell to a 3-2 defeat at the hands of Turkmenistan and a 2-1 loss to South Korea in the final two games, despite Soony Saad putting them ahead in the first 15 minutes in the latter.

Nonetheless, the Cedars progressed to the third round as one of the best runners-up, and head into this stage under the new management of Ivan Hasek.

They began with a relatively impressive point, holding heavy favourites United Arab Emirates to a goalless draw away from home.

Hasek's men will now look to build on that with what would be an eye-catching result on Tuesday, having collected just one point from two games against the Tigers of Asia in the previous round.

South Korea World Cup Qualifying - Asia form:

South Korea form (all competitions):

Lebanon World Cup Qualifying - Asia form:

Lebanon form (all competitions):

Team News

South Korea's Heung-Min Son shoots at goal on June 5, 2021 © Reuters

South Korea will be led by talismanic captain Son Heung-min, who has 27 goals in 92 international appearances, and hit 17 goals and 10 assists in 37 Premier League appearances for Tottenham Hotspur last season.

The line will likely be led by experienced Bordeaux forward Hwang Ui-jo, who has netted 14 goals for his nation.

Attacker Hwang Hee-chan recently signed on loan for Premier League outfit Wolverhampton Wanderers from Red Bull Salzburg and offers plenty of threat going forward, and he will be keen to break back into the starting XI after only making a substitute appearance last time out.

At the other end of the pitch, Kim Min-jae and Kim Young-gwon should continue their partnership at the heart of a back four.

After an impressive clean sheet last time out, Lebanon should again deploy Alexander Michel and Joan Oumari in the middle of their defensive line, with full-backs Kassem Al Zein and Abbas Asi rounding off the back four.

Their line will be led by experienced captain Hassan Maatouk, who has netted 21 goals in 94 appearances for his nation.

South Korea possible starting lineup:
S Kim; Yong, M Kim, Y Kim, Hong; I Hwang, Nam; H Hwang, Lee, Son; U Hwang

Lebanon possible starting lineup:
Matar; Asi, Michel, Oumari, Al Zein; Heidar, Matar, Melki, Saad; Jradi, Maatouk

SM words green background

We say: South Korea 2-0 Lebanon

While the visitors demonstrated plenty of defensive resilience last time out, and the hosts were also kept at bay by Iraq, we only see South Korea taking all three points on Tuesday.

The Tigers of Asia boast plenty of quality going forward, and should not be kept out again, especially with the extra desire for a return to winning ways to ensure they sit in a good position to reach next year's World Cup.

Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting that at least one team will not score (BTTS - no) in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.

Written by
Sam Varley

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a South Korea win with a probability of 57.59%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for Lebanon had a probability of 17.65%.

The most likely scoreline for a South Korea win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.04%) and 2-1 (9.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.44%), while for a Lebanon win it was 0-1 (7.09%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for South Korea in this match.