Shrewsbury Town come into their final League One fixture before the Christmas break desperate for a win when they welcome Cheltenham Town to New Meadow on Saturday.
The Shrews are narrowly above the relegation line at the moment, possessing a better goal difference than Morecambe, while the Robins are winless in four straight matches in all competitions but have a chance to move into the top half of the table with a win this weekend and some help.
Match preview
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It seems as though Shrewsbury need a break to recharge their batteries as the club from the West Midlands have failed to find much consistency of late, winning only one of their last six domestic contests.
The month of December has been an incredibly demanding one for them thus far, with three games in a week before their 1-0 defeat to Doncaster Rovers last weekend.
Hanging on has become an all too common theme for them recently as they have not fired more than three shots on target in their previous seven matches played in all competitions and are often on their heels, having to defend for long stretches.
Steve Cotterill has not minced words about his team's performances in recent weeks, though he did say following their defeat to the Rovers that they could have earned three points if they had played that game in front of their home fans.
We will never know if that result would have been the same or not at New Meadow, but they are clearly a different team at home than on the road, unbeaten in their last five matches played in Shrewsbury.
Technically speaking, they have struggled in their passing and build-up play as this team have rarely been able to put together a lot of flow, often clicking with a pass accuracy in the 60-70% range.
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Following their League Two triumph from a season ago, Cheltenham have been able to remain safe from the threat of relegation throughout most of 2021-22 by riding a wave of positive and negative momentum, not winning more than two consecutive domestic fixtures, but at the same time, their longest losing streak was a mere three games.
The big flaw that manager Michael Duff needs to address at the moment is how poor his players have been at the back, conceding the fourth-most goals in the league so far (37), allowing 13 in their last four matches in all competitions.
A 5-0 defeat to Cambridge United was a reality check for this team, who still conceded twice to Lincoln City, but fought hard to pick up a 2-2 draw, scoring in the fifth minute of injury time after Teddy Bishop put the Imps ahead four minutes earlier.
The Robins like to stretch the field and play out wide as much as possible, which has often enabled them to unsettle the opposition block, scoring multiple goals in four of their last five games in all competitions.
They possess a good mix of youth and experience along with a coach who has done a tremendous job of getting the best out of his players.
You can never criticise this group for not working, as they have almost always been able to stay in matches this season, losing only five times by more than one goal in this current domestic campaign.
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Team News
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Shrewsbury should get a much-needed boost to their midfield this weekend as David Davis is eligible to return from his four-match suspension, although it is unknown whether Ethan Ebanks-Landell, Aaron Pierre or Ryan Bowman will recover from their injuries in time for this encounter.
The only change to their starting 11 last Saturday was in attack as Tom Bloxham replaced the injured Bowman, who scored his team-leading fifth goal this season in their 2-1 defeat to Wigan Athletic.
Goalkeeper Marko Marosi has done a marvellous job of keeping his team in their recent matches, having faced 17 shots in his previous four games played in all competitions, conceding four times.
Cheltenham recently locked up defender Sean Long to a new contract extension that will see the Irishman stay with the Robins until the summer of 2024, as he has been one of their regulars at the back, starting in 10 successive matches.
Alfie May, who had the only goal for his side when they nearly upset Manchester City in the FA Cup last season, scored his team-leading seventh of this campaign last weekend, while Matty Blair equalised in the dying moments versus Lincoln City, his third domestically in 2021-22.
In their last meeting with Shrewsbury, the Robins got contributions from alternate sources, with Conor Thomas notching his only goal to date this year from the penalty spot and Kyle Joseph scoring the winner in the second half.
Shrewsbury Town possible starting lineup:
Marosi; Nurse, Leahy, Pennington; Ogbeta, Davis, Bennett, Daniels; Udoh; Cosgrove, Bloxham
Cheltenham Town possible starting lineup:
Evans; Raglan, Pollock, Long; Blair, Sercombe, Chapman, Wright; May; Williams, Joseph
We say: Shrewsbury Town 2-2 Cheltenham Town
The Robins still have plenty of room for improvement defensively, while the Shrews do not have a ton of quality in attack, but should have their share of opportunities to score in this one.
Expect an exciting back and forth game from these sides who work extremely hard and can create surprising results against the stronger sides in League One.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shrewsbury Town win with a probability of 42.32%. A win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 31.4% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shrewsbury Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.8%) and 2-0 (7.49%). The likeliest Cheltenham Town win was 0-1 (8.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.5%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Shrewsbury Town would win this match.
