Sheffield Wednesday have a chance to pick up of their first League One victory of 2022 and at the same time close the gap between themselves and Plymouth Argyle, who they will host on Saturday at Hillsborough.
It has been 13 days since the Owls last played a competitive match, losing 1-0 to Shrewsbury earlier this month as they trail the Pilgrims in the table by six points, with Plymouth winning their last three games played in all competitions.
Match preview
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Coming into the Christmas holidays in 2021, the Owls appeared to have found their stride, unbeaten in 12 straight league fixtures before a lengthy break put a halt to that momentum.
Having some games postponed is the last thing that manager Darren Moore and his team needed, and it seems as though that lengthy delay has affected their play on the field.
Wednesday ended last year by losing 5-0 to Sunderland, 19 days after they had defeated Crew Alexandra by a 2-0 score, putting them in contention for a playoff spot at the time.
They only had to wait three days after their defeat to The Black Cats before their next game, but the squad appeared to be a little shell-shocked and low on confidence, conceding seven targeted efforts to the Shrews despite only allowing them 34% possession.
Following that defeat, Moore said that his team had failed to create those clear-cut opportunities in front of goal despite carrying the play and tempo of that game.
Finding more consistency in the final third is among the New Year's resolutions that their manager is seeking as their goalscoring has dried up lately, having failed to find the back of the net in four of their last five matches.
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While the Owls are struggling to score, Plymouth have been sharp defensively in recent games, collecting three successive clean sheets in all competitions.
On Saturday, Steven Schumacher saw his side dig deep in their FA Cup tie versus Birmingham, scoring in extra time to advance to the fourth round of the tournament for a second successive campaign.
Under their 37-year-old manager from Liverpool, this team have put together some excellent, free-flowing passing and have been on the right end of many results, losing only once in their last five matches played.
They are currently positioned to earn the final qualification spot for the League One playoffs, a significant improvement from their previous campaign when they finished 18th.
Even before Schumacher became the manager, this team showed that they are not intimidated when it comes to playing on the road, losing only three of their 12 games played in the league this season away from home.
The focus for them moving forward will be to keep their foot on the gas and continue to earn points for a chance to move up into the Championship next season, as MK Dons are only three points behind them heading into this weekend's matches.
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Team News
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The Owls could be missing centre-back Lewis Gibson once again, as the man on loan from Everton is still struggling with his fitness, and it seems like they could use the Englishman with fellow loanee Bailey Peacock-Farrell having faced 16 shots combined in his previous two matches played, conceding six goals.
Moore made a few minor changes to his starting 11 against Shrewsbury from the side who began the match against Sunderland, as Sam Hutchinson replaced Chey Dunkley on defence, Dennis Adeniran was inserted in midfield rather than Fisayo Dele-Bashiru, Theo Corbeanu came into the lineup instead of Nathaniel Mendez-Laing and Saido Berahino replaced Jack Hunt.
Lee Gregory is their biggest goalscoring threat with eight goals this season, four more than the next closest player on the team, Florian Kamberi.
Plymouth substitute Ryan Law was the hero for his side over the weekend as Jordan Houghton set him up for the game-winning goal versus Championship side Birmingham.
The last time Ryan Hardie found the back of the net was in their FA Cup victory over the Owls last November, but the Scottish international still leads them in goals this season with nine, tied for seventh in the league with Marcus Harness from Portsmouth.
Michael Cooper has not conceded a goal since a 2-1 defeat to Sunderland on December 11 as their back five of Conor Grant, Macaulay Gillesphey, Dan Scarr, James Bolton and Joe Edwards did not allow a single shot on target in their weekend cup tie.
Sheffield Wednesday possible starting lineup:
Peacock-Farrell; Johnson, Dunkley, Palmer; Wing; Dele-Bashiru, Bannan, Byers, Paterson; Kamberi, Gregory
Plymouth Argyle possible starting lineup:
Cooper; Gillesphey, Scarr, Wilson; Grant, Broom, Houghton, Camara; Ennis, Hardie, Garrick
We say: Sheffield Wednesday 2-2 Plymouth Argyle
Having 13 days in between their previous game and this one, we expect Sheffield Wednesday to struggle out of the gate, although playing on their home field should enable them to find their footing eventually, as they have conceded first in their last three league matches played at Hillsborough but avoided defeat each time.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sheffield Wednesday win with a probability of 51.83%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Plymouth Argyle had a probability of 22.93%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sheffield Wednesday win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.86%) and 2-1 (9.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.96%), while for a Plymouth Argyle win it was 0-1 (7.58%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sheffield Wednesday would win this match.
