Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Gijon win with a probability of 36.48%. A win for UD Ibiza had a probability of 33.09% and a draw had a probability of 30.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Gijon win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.2%) and 1-2 (7.13%). The likeliest UD Ibiza win was 1-0 (12.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.51%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sporting Gijon would win this match.