Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Gijon win with a probability of 49.06%. A draw had a probability of 28.5% and a win for Cartagena had a probability of 22.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Gijon win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.54%) and 2-1 (8.33%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.65%), while for a Cartagena win it was 0-1 (9.61%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 16% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Sporting Gijon in this match.