Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burgos win with a probability of 41.26%. A draw had a probability of 30.5% and a win for Cartagena had a probability of 28.21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burgos win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.56%) and 2-1 (7.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.55%), while for a Cartagena win it was 0-1 (11.85%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Burgos would win this match.